Whenever people ask, “is Brazil is still a good investment for international groups?” My answer, of course, remains yes. 

As we know, one year ago on January 1 2025, Brazil stopped treating betting like a grey-zone phenomenon and began operating a regulated ecosystem with licensing, supervision, enforcement and a clear line between legal and illegal. 

Was it smooth? Of course not – things in Brazil rarely are. 

But during the first year of gambling regulation here – something important happened: The industry proved itself as real, measurable and too big to ignore. Elsewhere, the Government’s own authorization cycle began with dozens of approved operators and billions of reais paid in license fees. And the regulator moved from theory to practice by maintaining an official, continuously updated list of authorized fixed-odds betting companies. 

Following a few months of regulated action in Brazil, the scale of the market became impossible to debate. In April 2025, the nation’s Central Bank revealed that Brazilians were wagering up to BR30bn ($5.56bn) per month on online betting.  

Further, regarding the market’s relevance on a global scale, Brazil’s trajectory is already ranking among the biggest and most well-recognized global marketplaces. Regulus Partners data reported via BBC News Brasil indicates Brazil is on track to close 2025 as the world’s fifth-largest betting market, with estimated revenue of BR 22bn (US$4.139bn). 

With this in mind, we return to the question of ‘worthwhile investment’ – and why my answer remains “yes,” despite all the noise. 

Primarily, when it came to regulation in Brazil – we found that legislation didn’t shrink demand, but rather it formalized the battlefield. The first year didn’t create betting in Brazil – it already existed at massive scale. What regulation changed, however, was the structure; licensing, compliance costs, monitoring and the beginning of enforcement. This is what serious capital needs: rules, not perfection. 

In addition, consolidation is not a risk. It’s the business model. Brazil is rapidly becoming a market where scale wins. Compliance, media efficiency, KYC/AML sophistication, risk operations, payments and brand trust are expensive. That naturally pushes businesses toward M&A and consolidation. 

This fact is evidenced by Flutter’s merger with Betnacional. Flutter announced a 56% stake in NSX (Betnacional’s parent) for about $350m, forming “Flutter Brazil” by combining NSX with Betfair’s local operation. That’s not ‘testing’ in the market, but rather planting a flag. 

Importantly, this year will also have the football World Cup; which represents the next acceleration event of Brazil’s regulated market. Here, the real winners won’t be the loudest brands. They’ll be the operators with the best mix of distribution, product and retention under regulatory constraints. At present, Brazil still has a problem that looks like saturation, but is actually immaturity from a lack of product differentiation. 

Too many sportsbooks still feel the same. This reiterates the need to invest properly, because the market’s winners will differentiate on: 

• Recreational-to-core conversion (not just bonusing) 

• Personalization with responsible guardrails 

• Payout speed, trust, frictionless payments 

• Risk, trading, margin discipline 

• Content-native experiences (without crossing the line into irresponsible engagement) 

In the UK, recently confirmed duty changes which will see remote gaming duty rising from 21% to 40% from April 2026, and a new 25% duty on remote betting from April 2027. 

Herein lies an uncomfortable truth: when mature markets increase the burden and compress margins, growth capital looks elsewhere. And there are not many places left with Brazil’s combination of; population scale, sports culture, digital payments maturity, a now-defined regulatory framework and a market that is already ranking globally.  

In summary, yes: Brazil is still a good investment. Not because it’s easy – because it is inevitable. 

If Brazil is already tracking as a top five market globally within year one, the path to the top three within the next three years is no fantasy. It’s a plausible outcome if Brazil avoids self-sabotage through policy whiplash and if the industry evolves beyond copycat product and CAC-only thinking. 

Nevertheless, if taxes continue to rise and the rules keep shifting mid-cycle, legal operators will lose margin and channelization will weaken, feeding the illegal market. Then, consolidation stops being strategic and becomes a survival strategy. Brazil remains worth it, but only with legal certainty and balanced taxation.