Since January 21, Google has been permitting ads for prediction markets (with some caveats). The pattern is familiar, because as much as the history of prediction markets has been freighted with controversy, the level of implicit mainstream support for the sector has been consistently ramping up.
How are operators and affiliates reacting?
High-profile sports leagues like the NHL and MLS have partnered with Kalshi and Polymarket, not to mention news outlets like CNBC and CNN. Google’s announcement was another significant entry to this pattern and represents a window of opportunity, not only to the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket, but to potential new entrants to the sector and the affiliates that are willing to join them on their disruptive journey.
But who is going to benefit most from the vast new marketing opportunities? Will it be the established big players or smaller, bolder entrants with less to lose from taking a risk? Of course, the big players have not been averse to risk in their company lifecycles to date, so it could be that they will consolidate their position. Either way, with Google’s rules now relaxed, speed will be key, and there are visible signs of manoeuvring already.
The week after this rule change came into force, the sports betting affiliate, Better Collective, announced that it was hiring a Prediction Market Editor. Polymarket is also advertising for an Affiliate Marketing Manager. Gears are turning and we could be about to see even more of an explosion in exposure.
What can we learn about their intended strategies from the listings?
Better Collective is looking for an Editor for a new Prediction Market content production arm. The description reads: “You thrive in fast-moving digital media environments and love figuring out how people actually find content in 2026 and beyond. You’re excited about politics, entertainment, culture, and news, and curious about how prediction markets can offer a new, data-driven way to understand those topics.”
The criteria are quite heavily angled away from sports, leaning into the other cultural, political and entertainment-based contracts that prediction markets offer. There are two compelling reasons why this might be. A: the affiliate is aware that even with the greater exposure of Google ads, emerging prediction market platforms may want to err on the side of caution by avoiding the more controversial sports contracts. B: The kind of content that betting operator affiliates produce is almost always around sports or betting itself, but prediction markets and their wider scope will create new innovative opportunities for affiliates to write content about almost anything. So maybe Better Collective wants to lean into that point of difference.
Sports fans may be used to reading content online that links to gambling opportunities; it may soon become commonplace for people to find links to Kalshi, Polymarket or whoever as they’re reading the latest on Taylor Swift’s movements.
Let’s look at the other side of the coin. What is Polymarket looking for in its Affiliate Marketing professionals?
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4+ years managing affiliate programs for sportsbooks, media platforms, or consumer finance apps.
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Knowledge of sports affiliate marketing space.
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Deep interest in sports, financial markets, politics, and pop culture – with the ability to spot trending moments and translate them into high-performing affiliate campaigns.
No fear for Polymarket on the sports betting front – it is clearly looking for people with prior experience in the gambling sector to transfer directly to its affiliate marketing approach. I think the slight divergence in how much risk the operators and affiliates are willing to accept illustrates exactly what type of a window this Google ads policy change really is.
Risk and reward
Kalshi and Polymarket opened themselves up to massive legal risk as they grew. Both accepted it as part of the model. It allowed them to make names for themselves in a largely empty market, but it also put targets on their backs and made them the poster boys for a practice that could yet be penalised by the highest courts of the land.
Google’s new policy creates a new, higher level of brand exposure that wasn’t previously possible, but it comes with its own rules. A key one is this: “The products and ads comply with all local laws, financial regulations, industry standards and all other Google Ads policies. Advertisers are expected to do their own research on the local regulations for any location that their ads target and comply with these.”
This makes Google something of a kingmaker, because the above is a point that is still hotly contested across the US. Maybe Polymarket and Kalshi, in their legal mire, will be considered to have fallen foul of this, opening the window for new, more studiously gambling-compliant operators. As with much in the world of marketing, it’s in Google’s inscrutable hands.
But right now, while the window of opportunity is open, the question is ‘how much risk are affiliates willing to take on their shoulders?’ Is the potential success with prediction markets big enough to risk becoming persona non grata among the mainstream gambling industry? We’ve seen with Sportradar and OpenBet’s recent departures from the American Gaming Association that it’s becoming harder and harder, even as a supplier, to avoid taking a side. Better Collective’s avoidance of any mention of sports betting in its job listing suggests it still wants to hedge its bets, but there will surely be some willing to throw all caution to the wind.