At the start of 2026, there was a widely held expectation that US-based prediction market operators would begin expanding internationally, with Great Britain being an obvious target. That expansion has not materialised to date, as the sector has become increasingly preoccupied with regulatory challenges on its home turf.

Indeed, recent months have seen a marked escalation in scrutiny from US state regulators. While federal oversight via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) remains central to the legal positioning of prediction market operators, individual states, notably Nevada and Arizona, have taken steps to disrupt activity where prediction contracts resemble sports wagering. In Nevada, regulators have issued cease-and-desist orders, and Kalshi has been temporarily barred from offering sports, entertainment and election contracts, following an order obtained by the Nevada Gaming Control Board.