Advertising without guardrails: Regulations in the prediction market sector
David Forman, VP, Research at the American Gaming Association, returns to the pages of Global Gaming Insider to discuss how prediction markets are influencing the advertising landscape.
If it feels like sports betting ads don’t carry the same responsible gaming messages that they used to, you’re right: in the first two months of this year, nearly half of them were from prediction markets. And why does that matter?
While advertising levels from state and Tribal-regulated sportsbooks have declined dramatically since their 2021 peak, online sports betting advertising is increasingly coming from prediction markets that operate – and advertise – outside of state regulations designed to protect consumers. This means the ads do not include the same safeguards – like responsible gaming messaging, age verification and clear disclosures – that are required and enforced in the legal market.
Sports betting advertising
As legal sports betting expanded into new markets between 2018 and 2021, sports betting advertising naturally increased annually. Operators were working to gain market share, raise awareness of legal options and convert bettors from the illegal market.
Those ads were originally jarring to audiences who had never seen one before; some had become accustomed to the idea that sports betting was an illicit activity. But then overall sports betting adverting volume peaked in 2021 and has fallen 27% since, with TV sports betting ad volume falling nearly 50% from the peak in 2025.
Advertising in context
Today, sports betting represents a small share of overall TV ad volume. Less than one half of a percent (0.3%) of tv ad units are for sports betting, compared to 0.6% for alcohol and nearly 14% for pharmaceuticals.
States, Tribes and the industry have built a carefully structured framework for legal sports betting advertising – one that includes licensing requirements, consumer protections, responsible gaming safeguards and strict standards
Put simply: for every sports betting ad, viewers see four telecom or wireless commercials – and a staggering 39 pharmaceutical ads. The context matters. Public perception often overstates the prevalence of sports betting advertising, but in reality it remains a very small player in the broader advertising arena.
Flooding the scene
Like on TV, consumers are seeing fewer digital ads from state and Tribal regulated sportsbooks. In 2025, digital ad impressions for online sportsbook brands fell 14%, while in contrast, ads from prediction markets, often featuring students, exploded. In 2025, nearly one in five digital sports betting ads seen by consumers came from prediction markets and in just the first two months of 2026, that figure has surged to nearly half. This is a fundamental change in who’s targeting sports betting audiences – and how.
These ads are not subject to the same standards regulated sportsbooks and AGA members must follow, including responsible gaming messaging, no marketing to children and following other consumer protections in their advertising. Prediction market ads, by contrast, don’t follow those rules.
A major concern is the audience these ads appear to target. Many prediction market digital ads prominently promote wagering from college-aged individuals and in campus environments. Unlike regulated sportsbooks, which in most states require users to be 21, prediction platforms allow participation at 18 nationwide.
Just two months into 2026, Kalshi has emerged as the most visible sports betting brand by digital ad impressions – generating nearly 5.2 billion views – trailed by FanDuel with 2.9 billion. That’s a serious concerns for consumers. Many fans encountering these ads may reasonably assume they are engaging with a state-regulated sportsbook, when in reality, they are not.
Regulation matters
States, Tribes and the industry have built a carefully structured framework for legal sports betting advertising – one that includes licensing requirements, consumer protections, responsible gaming safeguards and strict standards. Prediction markets offering sports wagering through “event contracts” are operating outside of that system, inundating consumers with sports betting ads disguised as an investment product.
As their constituents are increasingly exposed to advertisements that openly flout state gaming laws, policymakers and regulators need to take action against these companies. Misleading advertising not only puts consumers at risk but also undermines and harms the reputation of the legal market.