AGA: Why prediction markets are just ‘different name, same bet’
The American Gaming Association has contributed to every Global Gaming Insider issue so far this year. In its November op-ed, David Forman, VP of Research, discusses the data behind prediction markets.
As you watch football this fall, you’ll see a swarm of new advertisements that weren’t there too long ago from so-called “prediction markets.” These platforms are advertising and offering backdoor sports wagers on NFL and college football games, point spreads, player performances and parlays. Their sports betting ads – and betting volume – are exploding.
“Prediction market” sports betting ads are blowing up
These platforms are inundating consumers with advertising directed right at sports fans – even though they claim not to be sports betting. Consumers have seen 232% more “prediction market” digital ads just through July of this year than they did all of 2025, with well over half (57%) of all digital sports ad impressions now coming from these platforms. And they are taking billions of dollars in wagers that are indistinguishable from those offered by state and Tribal-licensed sportsbooks.