The American Gaming Association (AGA) has estimated that US bettors will wager a total of $29.5bn on the 2026-2027 NFL season, representing “no growth” year-over-year due to “rapidly expanding” prediction markets.
"We're excited for the NFL season to kickoff, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favorite teams. Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalized sports betting had seen tremendous growth," AGA President & CEO Bill Miller said.
"But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal handle has stalled."
According to the AGA, sports betting accounts for 80% of Kalshi’s total trading volume, of which an estimated $5.1bn is generated by users under the age of 21, who would be otherwise ineligible to place wagers in 35 out of 40 jurisdictions.
Miller continued: "These ‘prediction market’ platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment.
"Kalshi and other ‘prediction markets’ say they don't need to follow state- and Tribal- regulated sports betting laws or pay state gaming taxes. Their defiance means consumers, including teenagers and freshmen, placing bets without the protections, oversight and accountability that the legal market provides."
The Association went on to state that prediction market operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket have “siphoned” over $1.3bn in potential state gaming tax revenue since 2025.
Miller and the AGA were able to celebrate a recent victory over prediction markets after a Ninth US Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco ruled against Kalshi’s efforts to file an injunction against Nevada regulators, having been prohibited from offering its services across the Silver State during July.
As part of a unanimous 3-0 decision, the court determined that the Commodity Exchange Act is unlikely to pre-empt regulations enforced by the Nevada Gaming Commission as applied to sports event contracts.
The ruling may represent the most notable victory over prediction markets to date for state regulators, as fellow jurisdictions could now reference the decision in ongoing legal matters.
MGM Resorts International rekindled its responsible gambling collaboration with the AGA on September 1 as part of Responsible Gaming Education Month in the North American market
