The past few years have not been kind to affiliates. Between mature markets taking unpredictable turns, turbulent Google SEO algorithms and lawmakers tightening iGaming regulations, it has been difficult to build a stable business model.
As part of its restructuring efforts in 2024, Better Collective had to let go of more than 300 employees, representing 15% of its total workforce. In that year’s Q3 report, Better Collective revealed that it had seen a 6% drop in organic growth year-on-year.
Despite that, the company’s revenue increased 8% to €81m ($94.35m), recurring revenue rose 14% to €53m and publishing revenue grew 16% to €56m.
US operations, however, fared badly, with revenue down 12% to €19m and organic growth down 24%. To address this, Better Collective shifted its business model from cost-per-acquisition (CPA) to revenue share, but would it be enough?
Better Collective’s 2026 Q1 report
In the latest report, the affiliate generated €86m in revenue, but rather than the US region being carried by international operations, it is now one of the most successful divisions in the entire company.
The revenue share income from North America alone grew 46% during this period, and while it was still only a fraction of the revenue compared to Europe and the Rest of World, it was tangible growth all the same.
In its Q1 report, Better Collective explained: “While this transition has temporarily dampened reported revenue, it has established a strong foundation for future recurring revenue to be recognised in the coming quarters and years.”
Was the shift to revenue share worth it?
After Better Collective began to struggle in the US, it shifted a large portion of its business from CPA deals to a revenue share model. While this led to an initial dip in immediate revenue, it does seem to have paid off in the long-term, if you mind the pun.
The revenue share from North America came to €5.6m while CPA created €5.2m; meanwhile, revenue share accounted for €33.9m in Europe and RoW and CPA brought in €16.2m.
By this point, 58% of revenue comes from recurring revenue models for a total of €50.1m, while CPA accounted for €35.6m; or a 58% and 42% split, respectively.
This raises an interesting perspective. The US gambling market was still seen as relatively new and emerging a few years ago, with new states legalising iGaming and sports betting from time to time. When a market is this fresh, are CPAs the better choice, as operators scramble to get sign-ups? If so, when is the right time to transition to a revenue share model, and has Better Collective cracked the code from its experience with the US markets?
What else did Better Collective change?
The revenue share model was one of many changes that were instigated at the company over the last year or so.
Better Collective has continued to see positives from its HLTV acquisition, which was completed in 2020, and subsequent push into the esports market. In Q1, sponsorship revenue increased 29% for HLTV and 21% in total.
The company also expanded its strategic partnership with X (formerly known as Twitter), with Better Collective’s AI-powered betting solution, Playbook™, becoming the official and exclusive global betting product on the platform.
But perhaps most interestingly of all, Better Collective began a strategic rollout of “prediction market-focused content and products targeting the rapidly growing US user base” which “represents an important step in Better Collective’s ambition to position itself at the forefront of a new and fast-emerging entertainment category.”
Who could have predicted this?
After sweepstakes casinos fell under regulatory scrutiny and a few big brands began to dominate the market, the landscape for US-based affiliates became uncertain. The number of potential brands to signpost customers to was fewer than anticipated and was a critical reason as to why Better Collective transitioned to a revenue share model from pure CPA deals.
However, a disruptor was about to enter the space. And while ‘disrupting the market’ can have several implications, all of them probably do apply to the prediction market business model that was popularised throughout 2025.
In fact, Better Collective reported a 100x volume growth in prediction markets from early 2024 to December 2025, with $13bn in monthly trading volume and $1trn expected total addressable market (TAM) by 2030.
To address this, Better Collective rolled out dedicated content hubs across Action Network and VegasInsider, added direct product integrations similar to Playbook, prepared for global scaling and pushed social-first content on X.
In the CEO letter, Jesper Søgaard said: “This category is performing ahead of our expectations, both in terms of user interest and commercial traction.
“At the same time, competition among our customers to attract users is gradually intensifying. This is beneficial for Better Collective and fully in line with our expectations for an attractive and expanding market.
“We expect additional players to enter the field throughout the year, and we view this as further evidence of the size and relevance of the opportunity.”
What can affiliates learn from this?
Nothing stays the same forever, and sometimes this industry can take the most unexpected turns. The US market did not mature how many had predicted it would, which led to a sudden downturn in business. Then, just as things began to look settled, prediction markets launched onto the scene and reignited the customer acquisition race.
But this journey is also what led to the discovery that a revenue share model is likely going to be healthier in the long-run for North American operations, which is proving to be a positive transition at Better Collective.
Of course, it is never going to be smooth sailing. As doors open in the US, they threaten to close in Brazil.
Søgaard continued: “In Brazil, market conditions remain muted. The absence of welcome bonuses continues to impact activity levels, while other regulatory changes have also affected market dynamics.
“More recently, a bill proposing a potential ban has added further uncertainty to sentiment. From our point of view, such an outcome appears unlikely; that said, this type of public debate does not support confidence in the near term.”