The UK's Machine Games Duty (MGD) rise to 25% is not a "victimless crime," according to industry expert Paul Sculpher, and will lead to the closure of casinos, shops and adult gaming centres.
Indeed, the land-based casino consultant says the industry's warnings to the UK Government were not a case of "crying wolf," and even a 5% increase – not the 20% argued for by the Social Market Foundation – will ultimately lead to job losses en masse.
As many as 30 casinos could have closed at a 40% rate – and "that isn't hyperbole" - while, at 25%, Sculpher feels the impact on gambling businesses remains "underestimated."
"Thankfully, from one perspective, it wasn't the full monty 40% that was threatened," Sculpher told Global Gaming Insider.
"But whether we should be pleased that it wasn't what was threatened, or outraged by the number of job losses, it's going to cause is a bit of an open question.
"At any level, I think it's underestimated how many of these gambling businesses are on the edge. In casinos, the element that I know best, there was talk about 30 casinos closing if it went to a 40% rate.
"That isn't hyperbole. That's exactly what would happen. It might not happen overnight but some of them have leases which they're locked into and you've got to pay the lease anyway."
With many casinos already "right on the edge," Sculpher warns that casino closures alone could cost hundreds of UK jobs.
And, if the impact of those closures and job losses is a smaller overall tax take, Sculpher asks whether the MGD rise will ultimately provide the Government with a net loss.
So I don't know if there are that many illegal bricks-and-mortar casinos but the point is this is not a victimless crime. Every percentage point that the MGD rate goes up costs jobs. It's important to recognise that
"At a lower rate of increase, there will be casualties," he continued. "There are several casinos that are right on the edge of whether it's justifiable to carry on, even with the extra machines that were granted in the recent legal change.
"And that comes with a material number of jobs. The average number of people employed in a casino outside of London is 60-70.
"If this smaller increase costs five casinos, that's 350 jobs. There are a ton of betting shops that are on the edge, as well. AGCs aren't in a world of plain sailing either.
"Then you get to the standard arguments of, if this smaller rise costs 5,000 jobs across the gambling industry, all those people get paid, spend money and pay tax.
"You start getting very quickly into... has this increase in rate reduced the overall tax take?"
Sculpher's final takeaway was to reiterate the industry's prior messages, in that they were not "crying wolf."
Every percentage point increase will cost jobs – ensuring any MGD rise is not a "victimless crime."
Sculpher concluded: "The most important takeaway for me was people weren't crying wolf.
"Every percentage point that goes on MGD has a material number of jobs that are lost because of it.
"From an online perspective, there's the talk of people being pushed into illegal operations.
"So I don't know if there are that many illegal bricks-and-mortar casinos but the point is this is not a victimless crime. Every percentage point that the MGD rate goes up costs jobs. It's important to recognise that."
Remote Gaming Duty rose to 40% this April, while Remote Betting Duty will rise to 25% next April
