The Gambling Commission has published an updated assessment of illegal gambling website traffic in the UK, stating that its latest data does not indicate consistent or sustained growth in consumer engagement across the past 21 months.
The findings are likely to draw scrutiny from parts of the licensed gambling sector, where operators and trade groups have repeatedly argued that tighter affordability checks, advertising restrictions and compliance requirements are accelerating consumer migration to unlicensed operators.
The update extends the regulator’s earlier trend work from July 2025 to February 2026 and focuses on estimated total minutes spent on illegal gambling sites.
The Gambling Commission said the figures should be used as an indicator of direction rather than absolute market size, as web traffic estimates carry margins of error and do not capture every route consumers may use to access unlicensed gambling.
According to the regulator, the latest trend line continues to show fluctuations but no clear seasonal pattern. It said the increase recorded in autumn 2024 was not repeated during the same period in 2025, weakening the case for any steady upward trajectory in illegal online gambling activity.
A key part of the update relates to VPN use. The Gambling Commission had already applied a 30% uplift to account for traffic hidden by VPNs, but it said changes following the introduction of the Online Safety Bill may have obscured a larger share of browsing activity after July 2025.
Using data from Ofcom and Similarweb, the regulator tested revised VPN assumptions and concluded that even under those scenarios, the overall picture still did not show sustained growth.
The findings matter because illegal gambling remains a regulatory priority in Britain, particularly as licensed operators face tighter compliance demands around player protection, anti-money laundering controls and advertising standards.
For the regulator, measuring the unlicensed market has become increasingly important in assessing whether stricter controls in the regulated sector are pushing consumers elsewhere.
The Gambling Commission said it is now working with international regulators and licensed operators to verify its methodology and identify additional datasets. It is also drawing on the Gambling Survey for Great Britain and its Consumer Voice research programme as it broadens its evidence base.
The latest figures only run to February 2026, meaning they do not yet capture the impact of gambling tax changes introduced in April, which some operators have warned could alter pricing strategies and affect channelisation trends in the months ahead.
The update follows another recent legal and regulatory development for the Gambling Commission. On 17 April, the UK High Court rejected The National Lottery Company’s challenge to the regulator over the Fourth National Lottery Licence process, backing its handling of the competition and its assessment criteria.
The Gambling Commission said data for July 2025 carries a wider confidence interval because of the sharp rise in VPN usage during that period
