Netflix is set to release ‘Instadocs: The Prediction Games’ on July 26, a documentary examining the rapidly expanding prediction markets industry.
The installment, part of Netflix's fast-turnaround Instadocs strand, features interviews with senior figures from two of the sector's biggest platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, alongside a regulator from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Prediction markets allow users to trade on the outcome of real-world events, from sport and elections to entertainment and weather, and have grown sharply in popularity in recent years.
The scale of activity was underlined by trading around the FIFA World Cup, during which Kalshi alone recorded roughly $27bn in volume and around 3 million users – both well above the platform's own forecasts.
The documentary's release has already generated debate, however. Just hours after its trailer was published, a CNN reporter questioned the timing and legality of trades apparently referenced by contributors filmed in Las Vegas, given a court order barring Nevada residents from using such platforms since March.
Kalshi has said one of the trades in question predates the ban, and has reportedly asked Netflix to remove the trailer, calling it misleading.
The wider sector continues to face regulatory scrutiny. Kalshi is currently contesting legal challenges from several US states over whether its products amount to unlicensed gambling, with Washington recently securing a court order against the company.
Separately, an investigation is underway into potential insider trading linked to the platform.
With prediction markets now attracting tens of millions of users worldwide, The Prediction Games arrives at a moment when questions about oversight, market integrity and consumer protection are becoming increasingly pressing for regulators and operators alike.
Celebrity, media and Netflix signal growing influence – Marieta Ležaić, Global Gaming Insider Content Writer
Kalshi is expanding its marketing push through high-profile celebrity partnerships as prediction markets seek to attract a wider audience. The platform has launched campaigns featuring Lionel Messi through its partnership with the Argentine Football Association, along with actor Timothée Chalamet, Luka Modrić through its deal with the Croatian Football Association and other international sports stars.
Rival Polymarket is also preparing new celebrity partnerships as both platforms look to expand beyond their core user base. Major US media outlets have also embraced prediction markets, with Kalshi becoming the exclusive provider of prediction market content for CNN and CNBC, while Polymarket partnered with Yahoo Finance. Time magazine has partnered with Galactic, while Bloomberg has integrated prediction markets into its Terminal.
Prediction markets have quickly moved from a niche financial product to a mainstream cultural phenomenon. Their rapid growth through celebrity deals, media partnerships and major sporting events has also raised questions around regulation, market integrity and whether they should be treated as financial products or gambling.
Against this backdrop, we expect (but cannot yet be sure...) Netflix’s upcoming documentary to explore the rise of prediction markets and their growing influence. While it remains to be seen how deeply the documentary will examine the industry, its release highlights how far prediction markets have entered the mainstream, following earlier satirical coverage from the creators of South Park.
Kalshi has raised billions in recent months and its most recent valuation stood at $22bn. Industry chatter has suggested CEO Tarik Mansour may be looking for an exit strategy while prediction markets are at their hottest and least affected by regulation. But that is pure speculation at this stage...
Polymarket is the other big player currently sitting at the metaphorical top tier within prediction markets. The operator has seen multiple international bans of late, while its markets have been questioned far more on ethical grounds – due to accusations of insider trading, but also the war-based nature of some of those markets.
Why this documentary is significant – Tim Poole, Global Gaming Insider Editor
As soon as our team walked into the office this morning, there was a collective reaction to news of Netflix's upcoming documentary: "I have to watch that."
This is perhaps the biggest 'mainstream' test prediction markets face. And the language Netflix has used is very notable. The streaming platform describes prediction markets as a "legal but controversial form of gambling."
In courts of law, Kalshi and Polymarket will not like that description – which may explain a hesitation about this documentary's trailer.
On social media posts to their customers, however, Kalshi and Polymarket would probably welcome Netflix's description (here, you see the great prediction-market juxtaposition of today).
How the public reacts once they watch the documentary will be telling – and may even change the trajectory of prediction markets for better or worse.
Undoubtedly, we will have more coverage on this next week. I'm looking forward to this one...
Netflix: The people's regulator? - Will Underwood, Global Gaming Insider Staff Writer
For me, a facet of this conversation that is interesting is – because of the way the US' hyper-capitalist society is structured – seeing a major corporate entity like Netflix take on prediction markets almost certainly bears more significance than any operator being taken to court by a federal or state regulator.
This, of course, depends on how interrogative the documentary actually ends up being. But we're now at a point in the conversation where Polymarket, Kalshi and the like have based their business model on something they deem to be more important than the opinion of lawmakers – social currency. How this documentary could affect (or not affect) the value of that currency will be fascinating.
Something else I find personally intriguing is how Netflix chooses to highlight – or, indeed, not highlight – the Trump Administration's undoubted involvement in the whole fiasco.
Anyone who watched Michael Selig's Congressional interrogation will have been blind not to notice the relentless, cultish praise he kept blindly lavishing upon Donald Trump's 'influence' over the CFTC's development and strategy. Not to mention the President's son is a Strategic Advisor of Kalshi. Selig is set to feature in the documentary, alongside Kalshi CEO Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan.
One can't help but wonder if these young, brash CEOs have acted in such a brazen way because they feel empowered and propped up by Trump – who has been a big fan of the sector since it called an election early in his favor in 2024. With this in mind, perhaps Netflix will have chosen to play it safe in this documentary. Hopefully not.
Prediction markets aren't an entirely new phenomenon – betting on election outcomes was a mainstream pastime in the US throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries, with newspapers often reporting betting odds alongside, or even instead of, opinion polls
