Macau's economic recovery is expected to continue next year, supported mainly by tourism and gaming growth, as reported by Macao Daily.
According to economists from OCBC Bank, the city's recovery remains "externally strong but domestically weak", with internal demand lagging due to higher unemployment, a subdued property market and weak consumer sentiment.
Macau's economy expanded 4.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025. Although momentum was slow at the start of the year, steadier mainland economic activity, higher equity market wealth effects and large entertainment events helped boost inbound travel. Gaming services surged, lifting economic output by 5.5% and 8.0% in the second and third quarters respectively.
Looking ahead to 2026, OCBC estimates that real GDP will grow about 3%. While this is below the 5% forecast for 2025, the recovery is expected to be more resilient and better distributed.
Macau's core engine remains the gaming and tourism sector, which continues to transition from regulatory uncertainty and the closure of satellite casinos. Operators have upgraded their marketing strategies, particularly for the premium VIP segment, aided by a stronger renminbi and relaxed travel rules.
For the first nine months of 2025, total gaming revenue grew 7.1% year-on-year, averaging MOP 20.1bn (US$2.5bn) per month. VIP revenue accounted for 27% of the sector and has returned to around 54% of its 2019 level. The bank expects total gaming revenue to rise about 5% in 2026.
Tourism spending per visitor may continue to decline due to the growth of budget travel, but a projected increase of 6-9% in inbound arrivals should support overall non-gaming revenue.
Macau's long-term goal remains a more diversified economic base. With the "1+4" industry strategy and greater Macau-Hengqin integration, authorities aim to reduce reliance on gaming and build a more resilient growth model over time.
Inbound tourism is expected to exceed 42 million visits next year, despite lower average non-gaming spending
