The Atlantic gap: Why prediction markets won’t translate in Europe
Bruno Ascenção, gaming law expert and Global Gaming Insider contributor, reviews the regulatory arbitrage reshaping American sports wagering... but why the prediction-market model cannot be replicated in Europe
As the first 48-team World Cup progresses across North America, the most consequential contest in the gaming sector is not on the pitch.
It is the regulatory rivalry between CFTC-regulated prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, and the state-licensed sportsbooks that have dominated US wagering since Murphy v. NCAA returned the question to the States in 2018. This tournament is the clearest case study yet of why the prediction-market model is winning.
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