Kalshi debuts new research arm for prediction market studies

Kalshi has unveiled a new vertical, Kalshi Research, which is meant to support potential academic studies into prediction markets by supplying researchers with access to internal platform data.

The exchange marketplace recently conducted its first study under Kalshi Research, finding it outperformed the inflation forecasts released on Wall Street by 40% when measured across all time periods and market conditions.

When measured from one week out, Kalshi's forecasts reportedly surpassed or matched the Wall Street consensus on 85% of inflation prints. Kalshi forecasts also showcased a 50% lower MAE for "shock forecasts," or when projections differ greatly from the end result.

Kalshi stated the findings are "particularly important," given policymakers, investors and executives can now "be confident" in utilizing the marketplace's data as a "strong signal" of future volatility.

Currently, academics from Harvard, Stanford, Yale and the University of Chicago have agreed to collaborate with Kalshi Research, while calls for abstracts and conference registration are now open to the public.

On December 11, Kalshi formed a new group of prediction market operators, the Coalition for Prediction Markets, with Crypto.com. The group will reportedly dedicate itself to the preservation of a safe and federally supervised prediction market space while prioritizing transparency and openness within the sector.

Along with Kalshi and Crypto.com, the Coalition for Prediction Markets also includes Underdog Fantasy, Coinbase and Robinhood.

The Coalition for Prediction Markets will focus on reinforcing federal frameworks which regulate the industry via education and integrity initiatives across the US.

Kalshi Head of Corporate Development Sara Slane and Crypto.com President of North America & Chief Corporate Affairs Officer Matt David were both named Executive Board Members of the Coalition.