Coinbase rolls out prediction market product in 50 states

Coinbase’s prediction market platform, announced in tandem with Kalshi last December, has now launched in 50 US states. 

Contracts covering sports, entertainment and politics are currently live to Coinbase users across the entirety of the US. 

The site previously functioned as a crypto exchange but has since expanded into what it has previously described as an "everything exchange." 

At the end of 2025, the company was named as one of five founding members of the Coalition for Prediction Markets and shortly afterwards revealed that its Kalshi-powered expansion into event contracts was due to be rolled out in the near future. 

Coinbase is registered with the National Futures Association as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), which allows it to act as an intermediary between a fully CFTC-approved Designated Contract Market (DCM) and buyers. 

In this case, Kalshi is the DCM providing the contracts themselves. 

Brian Armstrong is the CEO of Coinbase and posted on X about the launch, saying: “Prediction markets are the ultimate form of truth seeking. When there’s skin in the game, the output is far more reliable. Everything else is biased by someone's agenda. I think we’ll look back at prediction markets as a breakthrough in how we discover truth in the world.” 

This aligns with messaging from Kalshi that has positioned prediction markets as an arbiter of truth and public opinion as well as a financial trading platform. 

Another feature emphasized in Coinbase's platform launch is the financial model. 

Kalshi’s claim to be a fully peer-to-peer exchange has been prevalent in various legal proceedings involving the company, and it forms part of the argument as to why Kalshi is able to deny being a gambling platform. 

Some opponents have said that the use of Kalshi-affiliated market makers to ensure liquidity undermines this claim. 

Coinbase has led its announcement with a statement highlighting the similarly peer-to-peer nature of its own exchange, saying: “Out: Odds set by the house. In: Price set by the crowd.”

Whether all 50 states accept this as a valid reason why Coinbase should not be classified as a gambling platform remains to be seen – the evidence based on Coinbase's market allies suggests they may not.