Brazil’s newly regulated market could face one of the highest effective tax burdens in the global gambling industry over the next decade, according to a study by LCA Consulting commissioned by the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR).
The analysis projects that the total tax load on sports betting and online operators could increase from around 32% in 2025 to as much as 42% by 2033.
The rise would coincide with the full implementation of Brazil’s tax reform and the consolidation of the dual value-added tax system, combining the Goods and Services Tax and the Contribution on Goods and Services.
The study argues that the cumulative effect of existing sector-specific levies, new consumption taxes and additional set contributions risks placing Brazil at the top of the global ranking for gambling taxation.
The findings emerge as Congress continues to debate further obligations on operators, including proposals related to image rights payments for athletes involved in betting-linked competitions.
While these measures aim to address perceived gaps in the distribution of betting revenues, they also add to the cost structure faced by licensed companies.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has also publicly defended higher levies on operators, arguing that the sector must contribute more to public finances as part of the broader tax reform agenda.
IBJR, which represents major licensed betting operators in Brazil, has warned that excessive taxation could have unintended consequences.
According to the institute, if the legal market becomes significantly expensive to operate, consumers may be pushed toward unlicensed platforms that do not pay taxes, comply with advertising rules or offer player protection tools.
President Lula has already sanctioned legislation introducing a progressive levy on operators, with contributions to social security rising from 1% of revenue in 2026 to a cap of 3% in the following years
