Hours before US and Israeli warplanes hit targets across Iran on February 28, a cluster of newly created Polymarket accounts had already built winning positions on the contract “Will the US strike Iran by February 28, 2026?”
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps said six wallets funded within 24 hours of the strikes collectively wagered on “YES” shares and received about $1.2m in payouts. Bubblemaps also cited a single position that turned about $61,000 into $493,000, an 821% return.
An analysis of on-chain data from Polymarket’s order book showed at least two wallets. “Lettucehead718” and “suffix-295”. executed trades at identical timestamps on February 27 within seconds of each other.
The wallets had traded no more than 10 markets in their histories and placed small positions on nearby strike dates that Polymarket watchers described as decoy trades.
A Polymarket tools developer gavelsvtw wrote on X: “There was insane insider-looking trading on the Iran markets. 5+ wallets that together cleared $1,000,000… they sprinkled decoy bets on other dates. Biggest inside-looking trade I’ve seen in a year.”
Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman said the evidence was “convincing enough to share,” while adding that certainty is difficult. Bubblemaps named wallets flagged in its analysis, including “Planktonbets”, “Dicedicedice” and “Neodbs”.
The episode followed prior scrutiny of prediction market trading. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an advisory on February 25, warning that insider trading on event contracts violates US law. The advisory was published as Press Release 9185-26.
Representative Mike Levin said: “The DOJ and CFTC both had active investigations into Polymarket that were dropped after Trump took office.”
Polymarket has also faced regulatory action in Europe. On February 17, the Netherlands Gambling Authority ordered it to stop operating in the country and said it could issue a €420,000 ($496,000) per week fine up to €840,000 if it does not comply.
The Iran market family drew $529m in total volume, with $90m on the February 28 contract alone
