Study: Betting linked to rising household debt in Brazil

Brazil’s online betting sector has been identified as a significant factor in rising household indebtedness, according to a study conducted by FIA Business School and Ibevar, adding to ongoing policy discussions around regulation, taxation and consumer protection.

The research, which analysed data between 2011 and 2025, found that betting activity showed a stronger statistical relationship with household debt than traditional drivers such as interest rates and credit exposure. 

The coefficient linked to betting reached 0.2255, compared to 0.0709 for consumer interest rates and 0.0440 for credit levels.

While the findings highlight the growing economic footprint of the sector, analysts caution against attributing causality solely to betting. 

“The problem is that there is a dangerous combination: lack of financial education, difficulty understanding risk, the emotional factor of wanting to recover losses and ease of access, all combined with marketing that sells the idea of easy gains. In the end, the numbers don’t add up, because the system is designed for the house to win in the long run,” said economist Sidney Proença.

“Bets do not create indebtedness on their own, but they end up amplifying risk behaviour in a population that is already financially vulnerable,” he added.

The study estimates that 39.5 million Brazilians engaged with betting platforms in the past year, with a portion reporting impacts on their ability to meet basic financial obligations. 

Separate data cited in the report suggests shifts in consumer spending patterns, particularly among lower-income groups, where discretionary income is increasingly redirected towards betting.

In parallel, Brazil’s Government forecasts additional BR4.4bn ($837m) in 2026 from increased taxation on bets and fintech companies.

The sector continues to generate substantial revenues, with industry profits reaching BR17.4bn in the first half of 2025.