Gibraltar has granted its first licence for a prediction markets business, extending the territory’s regulated gambling and fintech framework into a product category that remains contested across Europe.
The development was disclosed by Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry Nigel Feetham during a parliamentary address. He linked the decision to Gibraltar’s efforts to respond to the UK’s revised gambling duty regime, which is expected to affect gaming businesses based in the territory.
Feetham said: “We have licensed a new company operating in the ‘prediction markets’ sector, processing the application in record time following my attendance at Consensus Hong Kong last month.”
He added: “This is the pace at which we must act to help offset at least some of the loss of tax revenues following the recent increase in UK Gambling Duty, while continuing to grow our local ecosystem. We are working relentlessly to protect Gibraltar’s economic interests.”
Although the government has not formally named the operator, Predict Street appears on Gibraltar’s official register as a licensed betting intermediary. A screenshot of the register shows Predict Street Limited listed among approved operators with an “Approved Brands” entry beneath its name.
Prediction markets allow users to trade on the outcome of real-world events, placing the model in a grey area between financial instruments and gambling products. The classification has drawn scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions, particularly where markets resemble sports betting or political wagering.
The UK has taken a more cautious approach to the category, with regulators assessing prediction-style products under existing gambling frameworks rather than creating a distinct licensing path.
Countries including the Netherlands, Romania, Ukraine, France and Portugal have taken action against Polymarket. Dutch regulator Kansspelautoriteit has described such activity as illegal gambling in the Netherlands.
The Gibraltar move also comes as established operators and betting brands explore adjacent products. FanDuel and DraftKings have launched prediction platforms, while Matchbook has also signalled interest in the segment.
For Gibraltar, the licence appears to form part of a broader diversification strategy as it seeks new revenue streams and a wider mix of regulated gaming activity while European authorities continue to debate how prediction markets should be classified.
Similar discussions are ongoing in other jurisdictions, including Malta, where regulators are assessing how prediction markets could be accommodated within existing frameworks.
The decision follows Gibraltar’s wider regulatory overhaul. In March, Parliament passed a new Gambling Bill designed to modernise oversight, widen enforcement tools and support diversification beyond the UK market as tax pressures increase.
Predict Street’s website describes the business as the “Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026” and invites users to register interest for early access
