Argentinian regulators warn Mercado Pago over World Cup prediction contest

The Argentinian Association of State Lotteries (ALEA), which represents lottery and casino regulators across Argentina's provinces, has sent Mercado Libre a formal notice regarding the "Torneo de amigos" feature of its World Cup prediction contest.

ALEA warned that the initiative could amount to an unauthorized gambling solicitation scheme under Article 301 bis of the Criminal Code, an offense that carries prison penalties.

The contest, called Fixture 2026 and known as the World Cup "prode," lets groups of up to 50 users forecast match results for daily prizes and an overall prize of $50,000. By June 5, more than 2.3 million users had registered over 60 million predictions in the tournament's first round, a figure industry sources expect has since doubled or tripled.

In the notice, ALEA called Fixture 2026 an "unauthorized promotional operation" and asked Mercado Libre, led by CEO Marcos Galperin, to bring the contest in line with the legal framework of each province, the jurisdictions that regulate gambling in Argentina.

The regulator argued that Mercado Libre's payment tools tie fund transfers between participants directly to the accuracy of their sports predictions, turning what is presented as a free promotional activity into a betting pool covered by the criminal code provision, and said the company benefits indirectly through higher transaction volume and user engagement.

Mercado Libre did not respond to the notice but modified some contest terms so that wagered amounts are no longer debited from user accounts. Instead, funds are held as a "reserve" that participants may voluntarily transfer to the winner once a tournament ends, with the company maintaining it does not handle the money. 

Sources at Mercado Pago told local newspaper Infobae that participation exceeded expectations, with users competing by accumulating points for correct predictions rather than money, and that results depend on participant skill. The company said it does not collect or redistribute funds at any stage and declined to comment on ALEA's warning.