Financial and technology executives at iFX Expo Asia in Hong Kong have called for clearer rules on prediction markets, arguing that legal uncertainty is holding back their development across the region.
The discussion centred on whether contracts tied to outcomes such as elections, economic events and sports should be treated as financial instruments or gambling.
Nicholas Baumer, CCO at brokerage firm Tickmill, said jurisdictions were taking different approaches. Gabriele Juodele, VP for Strategy and Growth at infrastructure provider Plaee, argued for financial-product treatment, pointing to US derivatives oversight as a model.
Other speakers said regulatory clarity could help attract institutional participants and new customer groups.
Peter Iosif of IronFX linked clear rules to investor trust, while Match-Trade Technologies’ Serhii Poplavskyi described prediction markets as appealing to younger traders.
The panellists also acknowledged obstacles. Baumer said products perceived as sports betting could face resistance in markets including Indonesia and Malaysia. Iosif raised the possibility of a regulatory crackdown.
Their remarks suggest that a financial-market label alone wouldn't settle how individual jurisdictions treat contracts on real-world events.
A similar classification debate is unfolding in Europe. Polymarket has reportedly sought financial-services treatment there, but France’s gambling regulator ordered internet providers to block access to its site in July.
The EU’s markets regulator, ESMA, says event contracts may qualify as financial instruments depending on the question asked, while also potentially falling under national gambling law.
Where they are binary financial instruments, existing national measures prohibit their sale to retail clients. This framework complicates the industry’s proposed route into European markets.
The classification debate is also active in the US, where the CFTC has submitted two draft rules concerning event contracts and casino-style gambling products for White House review.
Separately, the National Council on Problem Gambling has stressed the potential for gambling-related harm on prediction platforms amid scrutiny of its relationship with Kalshi.
The National Council on Problem Gambling considers prediction markets functionally similar to gambling, regardless of their legal classification
