The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has sent two prediction market rulemaking items to the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA). Their stated aim is to clarify how event contracts and casino-style gambling products fit within the definition of a “swap”.
OIRA’s public register shows both items were received on 28 September and remain under review. One, RIN 3038-AF82, is listed as a proposed rule to include event contracts in the swap definition. The other, RIN 3038-AF81, is listed as an interim final rule to exclude casino-style gambling products. The register provides titles and procedural stages, but not the full regulatory text.
The distinction is consequential for exchanges that list contracts on event outcomes, particularly sports. CFTC Chair Michael Selig has argued that the federal agency has exclusive authority over contracts traded on regulated derivatives exchanges.
State gambling authorities have challenged that position in litigation involving prediction market operators, leaving the application of state rules contested.
The submissions do not resolve those lawsuits or establish which particular sports contracts would fall on either side of the proposed boundary. The meaning of “casino-style gambling products”, including any tests or examples, will matter when the text becomes public.
A proposal to include event contracts must still pass through publication and comment before any final rule is adopted.
The interim final designation indicates a different rulemaking route, but it is not yet an effective rule. OIRA may review the drafts before they return to the CFTC for further action and publication. Until then, operators and state regulators have only the public descriptions to assess how the agency intends to draw the line.
The filings follow broader CFTC discussion of event contract listing, market integrity and contracts tied to what public figures say.
For example, the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee has discussed event contract listing rules and the manipulation risks associated with “mention markets”.
Separately, Kalshi has requested permission to offer margin trading for certain prediction markets, excluding sports, culture and mention contracts.
The full text of both rules remains unavailable while they are under review
