Brazil: Prediction markets gave Bolsonaro 80% odds before Lula victory

Kalshi and Polymarket favored Flávio Bolsonaro before counting began, but their prices shifted toward Lula as votes were tallied. Brazil’s president won despite entering election day as an underdog on both platforms.

26 Oct 2026 · 1 min read

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket initially gave Flávio Bolsonaro an 80% chance of winning the Brazilian election, but shifted towards Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as votes were counted, with Lula ultimately securing 51.79% of the vote. Lula's victory led to significant financial market reactions, including a 10% drop in the Ibovespa index and a 12% depreciation of the real against the US dollar. Both platforms are currently restricted from offering prediction markets in Brazil due to regulatory issues.

Key Points

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won reelection with 51.79% of valid votes, against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro

Both prediction markets favored Bolsonaro at roughly 80% on Sunday morning before shifting toward Lula during the count

Polymarket’s election market recorded more than $249m in trading volume, according to market data published after the vote

Yesterday's Brazilian elections were unpredictable even for the prediction markets: Kalshi and Polymarket gave Flávio Bolsonaro around an 80% chance of winning before Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finally won the reelection

By 7:35 p.m. Brasília time, Polymarket priced a Lula victory at 71%, while Kalshi put it at 68%.

As the count progressed, Kalshi raised Lula’s implied probability of winning to 90%. Polymarket also increased its estimate, pricing a Lula victory at 92.8% later in the evening.

The TSE’s final count gave Lula (Workers’ Party, PT) 51.79% of valid votes, compared with 48.21% for Bolsonaro. Lula received 64.26 million votes against Bolsonaro’s 59.83 million, a difference of 4,430,191 votes.

Polymarket’s Brazilian presidential election market recorded $249.1m in total trading volume, compared with around $20m reported on Kalshi during the vote count.

Both platforms are prohibited from offering prediction markets in Brazil following restrictions introduced in April. The government said the products did not comply with the country’s rules governing derivatives and betting.

Kalshi and Polymarket have argued that restrictions on Brazilian participation undermine the quality of their local market forecasts and have sought to return to the market.

Lula’s victory triggered a sell-off in Brazilian financial markets on Monday. The Ibovespa, Brazil’s benchmark stock index, fell 10%, triggering a 30-minute trading halt, while the real weakened around 12% against the US dollar and Ibovespa futures dropped nearly 15%.

Brazil’s Treasury also canceled government bond auctions scheduled for October 27 and 29. Investors had bought Brazilian assets on expectations that a Bolsonaro presidency would bring tighter fiscal policy and lower borrowing costs.

Good to know

Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round with 47.03% of valid votes, against Lula’s 45.16%. In the runoff, Lula won with 51.79%, compared with Bolsonaro’s 48.21%

South America Brazil

Online Results Prediction Markets