Fast Track has launched True Value, a new product that measures the underlying economic value of player activity from the first completed session. By separating the value of play from the influence of luck, True Value helps operators understand what that activity is worth when they need to make commercial decisions.
For years, gross gaming revenue has been the industry’s primary reference point for assessing player value. But GGR records what happened to the money, not what the play was worth. A valuable player who lands a large win can appear unprofitable, while an affiliate whose players experience a losing streak can appear to be delivering exceptional traffic. Both can lead operators to make decisions on outcomes that have more to do with luck than underlying value.
True Value provides the other side of that picture. Measuring the play, not just the outcome.
True Value calculates the underlying value of a session: what the operator would earn if that exact pattern of play were repeated millions of times. Built on the mathematical foundations of Fast Track’s gameplay risk engine, it models the complex interplay between game mathematics, player behaviour and bonus mechanics. It accounts for the games played, their return to player and volatility, stake sizes, the sequence of play, and bonus mechanics and terms, including wagering requirements.
Simon Lidzén, Co-founder and CEO of Fast Track, said: “Operators make decisions every day about which players to recognise, which offers to continue and which acquisition partners to invest in. Those decisions deserve a better foundation than waiting for luck to average out.
“With True Value, we have now found a better way. I look forward to this becoming the new industry standard, helping operators truly understand where value is created and make informed decisions about where to invest.”
The launch is supported by analysis of 1.7 million sessions across several brands. The research examined how closely GGR reflected the True Value of the same activity, both at individual-session level and across larger samples.
Only 2.9% of individual sessions recorded GGR within 10% of their True Value. In the study’s random-sampling analysis, it took 250,000 sessions before nine out of ten samples fell within that range. For most players, offers and affiliates, commercial decisions are made long before that volume of activity is available.
The practical implications extend across player segmentation, bonus evaluation and affiliate assessment. In one deployment, True Value identified a few hundred players whose value was well above the operator’s threshold for its high-value player segment. Fewer than half were classified in that segment, illustrating how reliance on realised revenue can leave valuable players unrecognised.
Ed Dickerson, Director of Product at Fast Track, said: “GGR tells you what the money did. True Value tells you what the play was worth. Both matter, but they answer different questions.
“The important distinction is that we are measuring activity that has already happened, not claiming to know everything about a player’s future after one session. More sessions build a richer picture of the player. What operators no longer have to wait for is an understanding of what those completed sessions were worth.”
True Value complements GGR: one records the financial outcome, while the other measures the underlying value of the activity that produced it. Together, they give operators a clearer basis for assessing performance and deciding where to invest.
True Value is on show at SBC Summit in Lisbon, stand A311.
