This week marks the midpoint of the year's final quarter and, looking back, the discourse around gaming in the US this year has been aggressively dominated by prediction markets.
2025 was much the same. However, this year truly does feel as though the sector – and the conversation around it – has elevated to another level entirely. One need only look as far as Kalshi's $65bn funding round this week (just weeks after its $40bn valuation) for proof of that fact.
Now, by no means is anyone suggesting the industry has become bored with traditional sports betting; far from it. But controversy is a captivating pastime, and the bigger the opportunity, the louder the noise becomes.
New York stands up for sports betting
The US always has (and always will) look to New York to pave the path from the front.
Indeed, there may not be a city on Earth better placed to set the pace creatively, financially and economically than NYC. This week saw the Empire State make a bold statement on behalf of traditional sports betting by reporting the highest-ever state monthly wagering handle of $2.79bn for October, eclipsing the previous record of $2.64bn last October, also recorded in New York.
Fascinatingly, gross gaming revenues amounted to $258.1m. That marks the highest GGR of the calendar year; nothing to be sniffed at, but only the state's third-highest revenue figure on record and a margin behind the record $280.6m figure from November 2025.
With all eyes focused on prediction markets, New York remains a booming sports betting powerhouse
Favorable sports results account for the slightly offset revenue, a trend evident across all of the state's operators, one of which led from the front through October.
After a difficult third quarter, Flutter and FanDuel have been in need of some good news of late, for obvious reasons. The operator's $1.02bn handle from New York during October – a company record and the highest monthly handle recorded by an operator in a state, ever – certainly won't have hurt. FanDuel consistently leads in New York, and is closely trailed by DraftKings, which also recorded its highest-ever handle figure of $948.7m.
The pair were out ahead of the rest of the pack, as the 'next-best' in the state was Fanatics, which reported a handle of $321.4m, followed by BetMGM, Caesars, RSI, theScore Bet (Penn), and Bally's, in descending order.
Interestingly, last week DraftKings CEO Jason Robins stated that, versus predictions, "sports betting product is a better product and attracts customers better" as part of the operator's Q3 investor call. Food for thought...
Why the sudden surge?
A gargantuan handle figure like this has been coming for some time.
To go one further, a $3bn monthly wagering handle is in the post for New York, and will likely arrive by March 2028, if not before.
Some will remember just how exciting the then-record handle of $2.32bn in New York from October 2024 was – before the world was turned upside-down by predictions. A near-$500m advancement in two years highlights a 20.3% upswing from that figure, a solid amount of growth for a state that has now begun to plateau into maturity since the launch of its online sports betting market in January 2022.
By no means is anyone suggesting the industry has become bored with traditional sports betting, far from it. But controversy is a captivating past time
Historically, October has always represented a month of inflated sports betting engagement due to the peak of the NFL and college football seasons, the opening of the NBA and NHL seasons all coinciding with the MLB postseason World Series. The month also frequently observes the 'Sports equinox,' the only day when all four of the mentioned sports leagues are simultaneously active in the US. But there's more to it than that...
New York is experiencing a bit of a moment when it comes to sport. The Knicks are flying off the back of their NBA Championship win in June, the first in 50 years. The New York Giants are also off to a flyer this season in the NFL, leading the National Football Conference (NFC) East, while the Buffalo Bills are also leading the American Football Conference (AFC) East standings.
There isn't much that's guaranteed in sports, not even by success. One thing success does guarantee, though, is increased engagement. And increased engagement with sport invariably leads to increased engagement with sports betting. And that's exactly what's happening in New York.
How do prediction politics change the context?
Elsewhere, the last few months have seen the state of New York ramp up its enforcement action against prediction markets, with action culminating in an official lawsuit being filed against Kalshi by the New York State Gaming Commission (NYSGC) in October.
This New York County Supreme Court filing came off the back of the operator's refusal to comply with various subpoena requests related to Kalshi’s sports-event contracts, offerings to residents who are under 21, advertisements describing its products as wagers or bets and the operator’s ownership structure.
A gargantuan handle figure like this has been coming for some time
Right now, the operator has until December 17 to show cause in the subpoena investigation by way of releasing records related to influencer promotions, undisclosed sponsorships, fabricated winning trades and market-making practices. As of Monday, a coalition of 37 states filed an amicus brief supporting New York in its battle against Kalshi.
More broadly, New York has become one of the key states in the battleground against prediction markets, and the idea that the jurisdiction's actions against the sector may have led to a lack of competition helping to set the stage for October's handle surge is plausible. However, the idea that this surge could come about while Kalshi (alongside other prediction platforms) remain operational in the state is perhaps all the more encouraging for the sports betting sector.
With all eyes focused on prediction markets, New York remains a booming sports betting powerhouse – and a clear signifier that, no matter what happens, the sector itself remains resilient to anything that comes its way. Even if some of the operators within the sector don't.
October 2023 marked the first time New York (and, indeed, any US state) recorded a $2bn+ monthly wagering handle
