A total of 7,500 job losses and the shuttering of all 1,287 Betfred retail branches - this was the warning Chairman Fred Done and CEO Joanne Whittaker have presented to the UK Government about the long-rumoured gambling tax hikes.
The prospects of significant increases in Remote Gaming Duty and General Betting Duty became something close to a reality after the Chancellor all-but confirmed the Autumn Budget policy in an interview: "I do think there is a case for gambling firms paying more... they should pay their fair share of taxes and we will make sure that happens."
If the recommendations of Gordon Brown or the SMF are heeded, some online and land-based taxes could get as high as 50%, both of which would cut retail to the bone, because that's where the profit margins are the skinniest, or in some cases non-existent.
Done's near-apocalyptic view of retail gambling after such increases may give pause for thought to some Number 10 policymakers, but it won't feel shocking to many in the industry who have been making similar noises over past weeks and months.
Industry wide... not just Betfred
Evoke has echoed his sentiments, confirming recently that it is considering the closure of up to 200 William Hill betting shops.
Entain CEO Stella David also recently spoke to Global Gaming Insider Editor Tim Poole, and was of the same school of thought: "Inevitably, if there's a big increase, retail shops will close."
David added: "It's an absolute gift to anybody but the UK." She believes the focus should instead be on squashing the black market and reclaiming the money draining through it.
She points out that there are case studies within easy reach - see the Netherlands - which show that making a grab for tax can in fact backfire so much that tax revenues actually decrease.
Done's strong words to the BBC illustrate exactly one of the reasons why. General Betting Duty could go up to 50%, but if there are no betting shops, that's one revenue stream that's dead and buried - you can't tax an empty high street.
According to Done and CEO Whittaker, as little as a 5% increase would wipe out Betfred's profit margins, with 300 of the brand's shops already loss-making.
He's convinced that there is only 20 years of life left on the high street without tax increases and that the acceleration of that process is needlessly destructive.
The archtypal black-market argument
Paddy Power is another that has already been pushed into taking action, closing 28 shops in Ireland with a further 29 across the UK and Ireland to follow suit.
The end of retail betting as we know it is one thing, if that's what the Government intends, but Done was clear when he said: "People will still bet, but they'll bet offshore with it."
Stamping out one quite lucrative revenue stream for the Treasury doesn't mean that money's staying in the fair economy and, if it's going into online betting, which is also potentially being hit by the tax increases, there's no guarantee that the funds are staying in the country.
To combat the threat of the black market and changing consumer preferences, the likes of Evoke and Paddy Power have not been idle, and away from closures they have been active in their attempts to innovate both retail and digital channels.
Innovative thinking
Evoke's new office in Leeds includes a broadcast studio and podcast spaces, while Paddy Power just recently launched an American-style sportsbook and bar at the Hippodrome.
Firms are rethinking and reimagining retail, and the 20 years of life that Done refers to might be enough time for the industry to restructure in a way that preserves it in some forms.
The financial pressures imposed by severe tax rises now might force companies into packing in those plans before they've had a chance to show profitability.
David was not confident that the dozens of MPs giving their backing to the rumoured plans were across all of this information, but as the Autumn Budget, due on 26 November, looms, perhaps warnings like Done's will make them think twice.
Up until now, warnings from analysts and industry have fallen on deaf ears, with the Government sidestepping speculation and refraining from getting involved in resultant situations such as British Horseracing's Axe the Tax campaign. Indeed, it's far from certain the Government will listen now.
Betfred recently appointed Aidan Barry as its new Trading Director, his remit includes overseeing technological developments designed to improve operational efficiency
