BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt led an investor call today overviewing the operator’s reported Q1 results, which were “slightly below expectations.”
Indeed, despite the lowering of these 2026 expectations by $100m – as seen outlined in BetMGM’s full Q1 2026 report – the operator expects to deliver adjusted EBITDA within its $300M-$350m guidance, albeit on the lower end.
The big three: sports betting, iGaming & retail
Greenblatt begins the call by outlining that iGaming contribution grew in the face of an acquisition market that has sped up, specifying that they are very comfortable with the wider outlook for 2026. Broadly, the BetMGM CEO explains that they have shifted their strategy to focus more closely on high-value players as opposed to higher volume of players.
Elsewhere, he underlines that the company’s retail revenue decline was driven by a “few large VIP-driven payouts,” and that the first quarterly decline in comparison to Q4 was driven by bad results for the house. However, Greenblatt confidently states that BetMGM is acquiring and retaining players “efficiently” and have increased their market share.
Looking forward, the operator intends to “focus on our areas of strengths,” as he continues that “there will be a reduction in marketing across online sports betting states.” Greenblatt believes one of the operator’s core strengths is remaining nimble, as he states they can respond to short-term changes with a rational capitalization approach, a little bit of easing in sports, alongside little bit of determined investment in iGaming.
Looking at iGaming specifically, he highlights that the sector is reflecting a lack of new state regulation since 2022; with competitors having entered the Michigan market recently and won a lot of market share and GGR – but that this impact is now easing.
Providing a broad summary, Greenblatt explains that, while it is early in the year, the sector and industry is often subject to H2 bias, and they will continue to focus on iGaming, Nevada and higher value players around the country in sports – with the World Cup, launching in Alberta and deepening omnichannel advantage in Nevada all 2026 highlights that lie ahead.
Our strategy is working and our business fundamentals remain healthy despite some headwinds
How long can prediction cannibalization continue?
The results in sports betting for us are encouraging, “we are still seeing YOY growth despite billion-dollar new spenders in the category”. They have guided to mid-single-digit impact, which within the context of the change has served to display resilience at what is the height of this new phenomenon.
We are seeing the more premium parts of our database are incredibly resilient, the impact of our strategy to focus on high-value players is proving to be more correct and appropriate in these “turbulent times.”
“We stand with regulated states, tribal partners and regulators. I am confident that the current intensity will abate – the current spending wave cannot sustain.”
“We are not assuming that what we believe to be irrational current spend suddenly becomes rational,” explains Greenblatt in response to a question on prediction market cannibalization, “we can’t control what others invest, we are positioning ourselves for when that position of hyper investment changes – and we have a fantastic product underneath.”
“Will we see the spend go up? I’m not sure, I wouldn't want to comment on others’ positions, but we believe that, long term, the market will come back to us. The majority of players will return over time, because the product experience of sports betting is better. We have a higher service level, and we can reward players in a way that others cannot. The value proposition of BetMGM and online sports betting is better for most players. Players that cannot be in the regulated market for whatever reason, they will prefer prediction markets.”
It is going to end with the hardcore, grinder poker environment where you have shark on shark violence
The bigger picture: EBITDA targets for 2026/27
Concluding the call away from the energizing subject of prediction markets, Greenblatt addresses queries around the operator’s broader target of achieving $500m adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2027, despite guiding for the lower end of its 2026 expected figure.
He underscores that BetMGM’s starting point is that it has a really healthy business at this moment in time, both on the gaming side and with regard to online sports betting. He continues that lots of exciting developments for players in the pipeline; explaining that Gold Blitz is now BetMGM’s, exclusively, and that online player values are going up. “We are now looking to build on our powerful foundation with exclusive content and I am also feeling positive about potential regulation in Virginia for iGaming in 2027.”
Additionally, he encourages shareholders that net gaming revenue per player is also going up, and that the World Cup – alongside Alberta’s imminent regulation – are both notable stimuli of growth: “There are risks, but we remain confident that everything we have set out is achievable.”
MGM Resorts, BetMGM’s US parent company, has seen its stock prices hold firm amid the rise of prediction markets in comparison to sports betting-only operators – with MGM's land-based gaming giving it strength, a key theme explored in the upcoming May issue of Global Gaming Insider magazine
