Prediction market operator Kalshi has notified the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that it is self-certifying markets linked to whether college athletes will enter the NCAA transfer portal, a move that has drawn sharp criticism from the NCAA.
In a filing submitted to the CFTC, Kalshi said contracts covering transfer portal activity would be listed from 17 December 2025, with the intention to list such markets daily.
As of Wednesday evening, the markets were not visible on Kalshi's platform. A company spokesperson said Kalshi frequently certifies markets that it does not ultimately list.
According to the filing, the proposed markets would apply to NCAA Division I football and basketball players.
Contracts would settle when a player publicly announces an intention to enter the transfer portal or officially enters it.
Valid announcements would include statements on social media or confirmations from agents or athletic departments.
NCAA President, Charlie Baker, said: "The NCAA vehemently opposes college sports prediction markets."
Baker added that allowing markets on transfer decisions would place additional pressure on student athletes and pose risks to competition integrity and recruiting processes, arguing that such activity should not be treated as a tradable outcome.
Kalshi said it prohibits trading by individuals with material non-public information and operates internal and third-party surveillance systems to monitor suspicious activity. The company also confirmed it works with Integrity Compliance 360 to monitor market behaviour and said it would refer potential violations to the CFTC where appropriate.
Prediction markets operate under federal oversight from the CFTC and are accessible nationwide, unlike traditional sportsbooks, which are regulated at state level.
The model has attracted interest from several sports betting operators, with Fanatics launching a prediction market product and DraftKings and FanDuel previously signalling plans to enter the sector.
Sports organisations have expressed mixed views on prediction markets. While the NCAA and NFL have raised objections, other leagues including the NHL and UFC have partnered with prediction market operators.
Transfer portal windows for college football open for two weeks in January, while men's basketball operates a longer window from late March to mid-April.
Kalshi remains subject to legal challenges in New York, where two class action lawsuits allege the operator offered illegal sports betting while presenting itself as a federally regulated exchange.
As previously reported by Global Gaming Insider, Kalshi and plaintiffs recently sought to delay a January pretrial conference as the company prepares motions to dismiss and compel private arbitration.
One of the New York class actions claims Kalshi acted with "malice, oppression and fraud", allegations the company disputes
