Google updates its prediction market advertising policy

In an update to its marketing guidelines, Google will soon explicitly permit ads for prediction markets in the US.

Up until now, advertisements for such platforms were prohibited.

The announcement of this change offers a working definition of prediction markets according to Google's advertising policies: "Platforms that facilitate the listing of or provide customer access to Exchange-Listed Event Contracts related to economics, sports, or current events."

If a company wishes to apply for certification to run ads targeting the US on this basis, it must satisfy certain criteria.

The entity must be authorized by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) - alternatively, it may be a brokerage registered by the National Futures Association (NFA).

From 21 January, the new rule will become active - it will be referenced within Google's 'Financial Services and Gambling and Games' policies page, with a dedicated 'Prediction Markets' policy page already available for preview.

Currently, the US is the only approved target location, though there are plenty of caveats that could make it more difficult for certain ads or platforms to gain the necessary Google certification.

For instance, if the ads themselves showcased binary options or fixed-return content, they would be disapproved.

Likewise, any promotion of online gambling, or informational affiliate sites and blogs that could redirect to the trading of event contracts is strictly disallowed.

These strict compliance standards could lead to lots of work for the appeals team at Google once the ads start appearing, but broadly this is another significant step towards the legitimization of prediction markets in the US.