Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said war-related contracts on prediction markets are becoming riskier as the sector expands, while defending the informational role such products can play during high-stakes events.
Speaking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2026, Coplan said the area remained difficult to navigate, particularly in relation to conflict markets. He said Iran was “complicated” and added that “the fog of war” can create misunderstanding.
Coplan also acknowledged the pressure that comes with a higher public profile, saying prediction markets face “more money, more problems” as they draw more attention.
His remarks come amid continued criticism of prediction markets over insider trading concerns and the ethics of offering contracts linked to war.
Under US regulations, financial contracts tied to war are understood to be prohibited and most prediction market platforms avoid them. Polymarket’s main exchange operates offshore.
User-compiled data on Dune Analytics showed bettors placed $425.4m on geopolitical questions on Polymarket in the week ending March 1, up from $163.9m the previous week.
Coplan argued such markets still have practical use. He said: “When I get hit up by people in the Middle East who are saying, ‘Hey, we’re looking at Polymarket to decide whether we sleep near the bomb shelter; we look at it every day’... that’s very powerful.”
On insider trading, Coplan said prediction markets differ from equities because “the true value proposition is information” and added: “Not all markets are equal. It is apples to oranges.”
Ric Best, head of prediction markets at Susquehanna International Group, said the legal framework is still evolving.
Best said: “There’s not really a well-defined concept there when it comes to prediction markets.”
He added that some boundaries are already clear, saying: “You can’t list a market on will this person be assassinated.”
The discussion also comes as the Wall Street Journal reported that Kalshi and Polymarket are in talks with investors about further funding at valuations of about $20bn each. Kalshi declined to comment to Bloomberg, while Polymarket did not immediately respond.
The latest comments follow Michigan AG’s filing of a civil enforcement action against Kalshi, triggering Polymarket lawsuit, which detailed Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel’s action against Kalshi and Polymarket’s separate lawsuit over what it described as an “immediate and concrete” threat from state enforcement.
Susquehanna recently teamed up with Robinhood to take over LedgerX, a US-based derivatives exchange
