The Dutch Government's plan to increase gambling tax revenue has fallen significantly short of expectations, according to a monitoring report published by the Ministry of Finance and the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA).
The review assessed the impact of successive gambling tax increases that raised the rate from 30.5% to 34.2% on 1 January 2025, before a further rise to 37.8% from the start of 2026.
The measures were introduced primarily to increase public revenue and were originally forecast to generate an additional €108m ($122m) in 2025 and €216m in 2026. However, the latest assessment found the additional tax take reached only €2m in 2025 and is expected to total €57m in 2026.
According to the report, several factors contributed to the weaker outcome. Alongside higher tax rates, the Dutch market has undergone a series of regulatory changes aimed at strengthening player protection.
These included tighter responsible gambling controls, deposit restrictions and advertising limitations, all of which reduced gross gaming revenue and therefore the taxable base on which gambling tax is calculated.
The monitor also noted that the tax increases themselves may have affected market activity. Some land-based gambling venues closed as operators sought to maintain profitability under higher operating costs, reducing overall taxable revenue.
Industry groups had repeatedly warned that higher taxes could have unintended consequences for the regulated market, arguing that operators would either reduce investment or withdraw from certain activities.
The findings come as the UK Government consults on proposals to harmonise online gambling duties under a new Remote Betting and Gaming Duty, with operators and trade bodies warning that higher tax rates could reduce investment and weaken channelisation.
The Dutch market has frequently been cited by industry stakeholders during that debate as evidence of the risks associated with higher gambling taxes, and the latest monitor provides fresh data showing that increased rates do not necessarily translate into the additional revenue originally forecast.
The findings add to a broader debate around the sustainability of the Dutch gambling framework. Since the regulated online market launched in 2021, operators have faced increasingly strict compliance requirements while tax rates have risen to among the highest in Europe.
Licensed operators are also subject to an additional 1.95% levy that funds regulatory oversight and gambling harm prevention programmes.
The report stated that it was not possible to draw firm conclusions about the effect of the tax increases on overall market size, channelisation rates or contributions to sports and charitable causes because several policy changes occurred simultaneously.
In March 2026, the KSA appointed Wiebe Ruttenberg to its Board of Directors, with responsibility for digital transformation and strengthening the regulator's response to illegal gambling activity.
The appointment reflected the regulator's increasing focus on data-driven supervision as concerns over channelisation and unlicensed operators continue to shape policy discussions in the Netherlands.
Industry associations had previously argued that higher gambling taxes could reduce legal market activity and ultimately lower government receipts despite higher headline tax rates
