Brazil's Government will have to pay back betting operators if the provisional measure to ban online casino and slot-style games operated by licensed betting platforms is approved.
The measure would still continue to allow sports betting tied to official sporting events.
While the measure's final design remains unsettled, allies say President Lula da Silva is determined to sign it, having previously said the Government would announce "drastic measures" against betting.
Under Brazil's Fiscal Responsibility Law, this revenue loss would need to be offset with compensatory measures. The Government would also need to proportionally refund the licensing fees betting companies paid to operate legally in Brazil, each of which paid BR30m ($5.8m) for a five-year operating license; banning an activity before that term ends would trigger a need for compensation.
The matter is being discussed internally among Casa Civil, the Finance Ministry, the Presidency's General Secretariat, the Communications Secretariat, the Health Ministry and the Sports Ministry.
Online casino games account for roughly 80% of betting operators' revenue, according to industry sources, meaning the ban would hit operator income directly.
The Government is reportedly considering a 180-day delay clause before the ban takes effect, rather than immediate implementation.
In practice, this would require congressional approval before the prohibition takes hold, since that's the standard window for a provisional measure to pass through Congress, and would avoid legal uncertainty if the measure lapsed without approval.
Between January and June 2026, bettors deposited BR88.4bn with licensed operators, with 31,821,805 unique bettors registered across 118,959,058 accounts. The industry estimates Brazil's illegal betting market is roughly the same size as the regulated one.
Finance Minister Dario Durigan stated that no clear decision has been made yet on banning or imposing more radical restrictions on betting in Brazil
