Will prediction markets outperform sportsbooks for Super Bowl LX?

As the 2025-2026 NFL season comes to a close, the eyes of nearly every person associated with sports, betting or gaming in general remain wide open given the potential ramifications of Super Bowl LX on February 8. The matchup between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks obviously also carries quite the implication for both franchises competing in the NFL’s most popular event, but Super Bowl LX could provide insight into the future of sports betting as well. 

Despite the vast expansion of prediction markets and event contract trading over the past 12 months, Super Bowl LX represents the first time operators such as Kalshi, Robinhood and Polymarket have offered its services to bettors for Super Sunday. With prediction markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than individual states, the handle generated through contract trading on Super Bowl LX could outweigh that of typical sportsbooks across the nation. 

What are the current betting odds for Super Bowl LX?

On most sportsbooks currently available in the US, the Seahawks are favored by 4.5 points ahead of the February 8 matchup, while the total score of 45.5 represents the lowest Super Bowl total offered since 2016. Both New England and Seattle feature stout defensive units which may prohibit a high-scoring affair, but the Super Bowl is typically when offensive playcallers in the NFL open their playbooks to feature concepts previously unseen during the year. 

Patriots quarterback Drake Maye was also provided additional motivation for Super Bowl LX after being passed over for the 2025-2026 NFL Most Valuable Player (MVP) award in favor of Los Angeles Rams’ signal-caller Matthew Stafford on February 5. Maye’s rise from a former top-three overall pick to MVP runner-up was one of the main catalysts of New England’s run to Super Bowl LX, along with the hiring of 2025-2026 NFL Coach of the Year Mike Vrabel. 

The confidence shown in Seattle should not be downplayed, however, as the Seahawks managed to claim the NFC’s top overall seed behind quarterback Sam Darnold, Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a defense led by head coach Mike Macdonald. The Seahawks will also carry a form of home-field advantage for Super Bowl LX, given the matchup will be played from Santa Clara, California, which is nearly 2,500 miles closer to Seattle than Massachusetts. 

How much betting handle is projected for Super Bowl LX?

According to estimates published by the American Gaming Association (AGA), bettors are expected to legally wager $1.76bn on Super Bowl LX, which could potentially mark an all-time high for Super Bowl handle in the US. While the figure helps underscore the expansion of regulated sports betting, data provided by analytics firm Apptopia presents an example into how consumer interest has shifted over the past 12 months. 

Within the firm’s monthly review of mobile application downloads, it discovered Kalshi’s prediction markets application was downloaded three times as much as both DraftKings and FanDuel during January 2026. One could argue that any bettor interested, and able, to wager on DraftKings and FanDuel would already have the respective applications downloaded, while Kalshi’s rise has mainly taken place in the build-up to Super Bowl LX. 

Still, the interest level in event contract trading has undeniably risen to new heights in 2026, especially as more operators, including DraftKings and FanDuel, continue to launch prediction market offerings across the US. 

Even as regulators such as the New York State Gaming Commission (NYSGC) and Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB) issues warnings related to safe play and unlicensed platforms, the standards required for prediction market operators by the CFTC pale in comparison to that of the state-by-state regulations enforced upon sportsbooks. With the additional reach prediction market operators can generate in the US, those involved with gaming may already expect event contract trading activity to surpass the wagers taken by sportsbooks for Super Bowl LX.

Will Super Bowl LX provide a glimpse into sports betting’s future?

The February 8 matchup could also serve as a leading example of the potential prediction markets possess for major sporting events, especially with the 2026 Winter Olympics and FIFA World Cup taking place shortly after Super Bowl LX. If one was having trouble gauging the amount of event contracts an operator could provide for Super Bowl LX, just imagine how the offerings may expand once 93 countries are competing in the Winter Olympics, or 48 take the pitch this summer. 

While sportsbooks will always hold its place in US gaming, the rise of prediction markets could reach its peak during Super Bowl LX, and continue into the spring and summer months once global events enter the scene. Prediction market operators are currently in the midst of legal battles with multiple states across the US, including major players such as Nevada, New York and California, but the questions surrounding regulation have done little to halt its momentum.

Also needing to be taken into account are the recent betting scandals related to proposition bets and match-fixing witnessed in leagues such as the MLB and NBA since mid-2025. With both matters resulting in motivation to limit prop bets and the amount users can wager on such offerings, could sportsbook bettors turn to uncapped alternatives for Super Bowl LX, the Winter Olympics and World Cup?

Whether prediction markets surpass sportsbooks as the number one place to wager on sporting events remains to be seen, but Super Bowl LX may provide the most mainstream glimpse into how event contract trading has taken over the industry in recent months. Will the trend continue for the 2026 Winter Olympics and FIFA World Cup, or can sportsbook operators find new ways to drive consumer interest and remain atop the betting food chain?