The Oracle Act, quietly submitted by New York State lawmakers this month, is a new bill which seeks to introduce stricter oversight of prediction market activity in the Empire State.
What began in the 1800s as a forecasting device largely for agricultural traders slowly matured through the 20th Century into a tool more commonly utilized by the economically enlightened. Indeed, in the early 2000s, Facebook Co-Founder Eduardo Saverin famously made use of his recreational meteorological interests to make $300,000 predicting oil futures whilst studying at Harvard.
In recent years, prediction markets have slipped out of the out the shadows, falling under the fluorescent light of regulatory scrutiny only to have their vast array of legislative inconsistencies highlighted in full technicolor.
Now, in lieu of any action or comment from the Commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory body incepted in 1974 specifically to oversee the prediction market sector, state regulators have been taking matters into their own hands. In fact, this week saw the Nevada Gaming Control Board reiterate the fact that any prediction market operators across the US will not be welcome to hold or retain a Nevada gaming license - prompting DraftKings and FanDuel to exit the state market.
New York, however, represents an entirely different story.
The Oracle of prediction
Aptly named after the Greek mythology of prophetic foresight, the Oracle Act seeks to prevent players in the Empire State from accessing markets related to sports or athletics, securities, political and catastrophic events - as well as events contracts that are deemed to be 'life or death.' What this bill represents is the first attempt to place serious legislative restrictions around prediction markets, specifically, at state level.
More broadly, though, the Oracle Act sees New York become the first state to test the regulatory waters of Prediction Markets and will likely unveil the potential reach of state regulation into what has historically been a federal boundary.
That being said, the Massachusetts Gaming Commission has also today sought to ban regulated operators from offering sports events contracts.
If sweepstakes are anything to go by, then this latest action could prove to be a catalyst for a landslide of legislation, as a year ago it looked for all the world as if sweeps were here to stay, but following New Jersey's decision to ban the practice, the sector has suffered blow after blow in 2025.
Of course, this outcome remains highly unlikely. Prediction markets have garnered such an immeasurable position of strength in the US landscape that it has now proven impossible for the big boys to refrain from joining in the action. This point was highlighted by DraftKings CEO Jason Robins stating last week that the operator plans to prioritize prediction market investment over sports betting and iGaming in 2026.
Fuel to the fire
All of this does not mean to say that the Oracle Act means nothing, however. If passed, the wider prediction market discussion becomes almost as speculative as the markets themselves. But if the CFTC's continued silence has taught us anything, it is that regulating a practice that is entirely based on speculation is, for want of a better word, tricky.
Those who have assembled the act have done so with the vision of offering enhanced consumer protection for users that more closely aligns with the 'new look' prediction market sector, as opposed to what will by now most likely be an outdated legislative structure in this regard.
At present, the bill sits before the state assembly and has a long way to go before it reaches Governor Hochul for final sign-off. If final approval is obtained, the Oracle Act specifies that it shall "take effect one year after it shall have become law." Providing the pace at which the prediction market sector is developing, an unquantifiable amount could well happen during that time.
Aside from seeking to partially close off a booming sector from one of the US' premium state markets, the Oracle Act will concern industry participants as it threatens to contribute even more confusion to an already bewildered regulatory landscape - all whilst simultaneously removing New York from perhaps gaming's most significant revolution in years.
A recent study conducted by Kalshi revealed that nine out of 10 US citizens support legalized prediction markets in their state
