Macau's gaming sector ended 2025 on a positive trajectory, with the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau's latest data showing full-year gross gaming revenue of MOP 247.4bn (US$30.5bn), an increase of 9.1% year-on-year. December revenue reached MOP 20.89bn, 14.8% higher than the same month in 2024 although slightly below November by about MOP 2bn.
Analysts attributed December's small sequential decline partly to weaker visitor sentiment following a major residential fire in Tai Po, Hong Kong, in late November. The incident led to scaled-back public events and heightened safety checks in both cities, which may have contributed to softer travel volumes.
Looking ahead to 2026, observers expect both supportive and constraining forces. Davis Fong, Director of the University of Macau's Institute for the Study of Commercial Gaming, noted that the expanded World Cup format could trim gaming revenue by an estimated 1 to 2% as match viewing competes with casino activity during the summer peak.
He said Macau welcomed roughly 40 million visitors last year with hotel occupancy consistently above 80 to 90%. However, room supply is projected to rise by only about 1,000 rooms this year. Limited additions could push hotel prices higher, prompting travellers to downgrade spending or select destinations where currencies have weakened more than the renminbi.
Fong added that uncertainty stemming from United States-China economic relations may also influence visitor and spending patterns, particularly after businesses accelerated exports and investment in response to tariff pressures in 2025.
Despite these challenges, analysts point to several tailwinds. Non-gaming investments in entertainment and cultural events continue to diversify Macau's offerings, while multi-entry permit schemes have stabilised mainland visitor flows. Broader Greater Bay Area connectivity and the operation of Hong Kong International Airport's third runway are expected to support international arrivals.
Fong projected average gaming revenue of around MOP 21bn in January and February, with the Lunar New Year period potentially lifting results further. Full-year revenue for 2026 is forecast in the region of MOP 255bn to MOP 260bn if early performance remains resilient.
The University of Macau's gaming research experts say non-gaming attractions now play a notably larger role in stabilising visitation patterns, particularly among younger travellers
