The French regulatory body, Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), has issued a warning regarding the addictive nature of prediction market platforms and has advised users to exercise caution.
The ANJ noted: “These prediction sites present several addictive characteristics similar to those observed in online gambling - but amplified by the absence of the protection mechanisms available in the legal gambling market.”
Prediction markets, which are illegal in France, could also create incentives to manipulate political or sporting events, the regulator warned. Continuing, it underlined that the structure of these platforms may encourage users to try to influence real-world outcomes to benefit financially from positions they take in the market.
According to the regulator, prediction sites are increasingly targeting users who have previously shown little interest in online casinos or sports betting. These platforms are often marketed as alternative investment products, despite operating on mechanisms similar to those of traditional betting operators.
Since November 2024, French authorities have considered services offered by prediction market operators to be unauthorised gambling activity. Following regulatory engagement, Polymarket introduced geo-blocking measures to restrict access from France, with Kalshi implementing similar restrictions. However, these technical controls can be bypassed through VPNs.
Between January and October 2025, cumulative transaction volumes on major global platforms exceeded $27.9bn, according to the ANJ. The success of prediction market platforms has been growing, particularly since the 2024 US presidential election.
Polymarket recorded a record volume of $3.6bn on the election market and correctly anticipated Donald Trump’s victory. Last week, the Netherlands Gambling Authority (KSA) took a firm stance against Polymarket, threatening to fine it up to $992,000 a week if it does not stop its operations in the country.
Other European countries, such as Germany, Belgium, Romania, Switzerland, Poland, Greece, Cyprus, Ukraine and Portugal have blocked access to Polymarket
