Macau’s gaming performance over the Lunar New Year period fell short of market expectations, prompting multiple investment banks to revise their February revenue forecasts downward, as reported by Macao Daily.
Average daily revenue from February 16 to 22 came in at MOP 786m, below the anticipated MOP 850m to 950m range. Industry estimates place gaming revenue for the first 22 days at roughly MOP 14.3bn, an 8% year on year decline. Forecasts for the full month have now been cut to MOP 19.5bn to MOP 20.1bn, equal to around –1% to +2% year on year.
UBS noted that although early-period demand was weak, the final three days of the holiday delivered strong ADR of MOP 1.2bn to MOP 1.3bn, up 10% to 15% year on year. Even so, month-to-date ADR remained at MOP 650m, down 8% year on year and 11% month on month. The firm estimated mass-market ADR fell 10% to 12% from January, while VIP volume slipped 8% to 10% with win rates of 2.6% to 2.9%.
Citi estimated that February’s first 22 days generated MOP 14.3bn, with a 45% weekly uplift driven by strong performance on the fourth to sixth days of the holiday. VIP hold in the early week, however, was significantly below normal.
Citi lowered its February GGR projection from MOP 20bn to MOP 19.5bn and expects combined January–February revenue, adjusted for holiday timing, to rise 11% year on year.
JP Morgan called the results mixed and now expects February GGR to finish flat to +2% year on year. The firm highlighted that “tail-end demand” from premium players in the days after the holiday will be decisive for the month’s final total.
Holiday gaming trends in Macau often produce sharp contrasts between early-week family visitation and late-week high-end play
