Brazil’s Federal Government has begun revising its 2026 budget projections and betting revenue is firmly under the microscope.
Following legislative changes approved in 2025, online betting operators will see higher tax rates applied to GGR, rising gradually towards 15% in the coming years.
The political backdrop is significant. Brazil’s President Lula da Silva has repeatedly expressed concern about the social consequences of online betting, highlighting risks related to indebtedness and mental health, especially for families in vulnerable situations.
Despite this skepticism, the sector has become an important fiscal contributor.
The new collection cycle begins in April, with the first measurable fiscal impact expected in May and June reports.
While the budget review also considers fintech companies' taxation and import tariffs, betting has become one of the most politically sensitive revenue streams.
The Government is targeting a fiscal surplus of 0.25% of GDP in 2026, equivalent to BR34bn, and updated revenue forecasts will determine whether spending blocks are required.
Treasury Secretary Rogério Ceron indicated that clearer visibility on revenue trends should emerge in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s Federal Revenue Service is recalculating projections to incorporate the impact of betting tax adjustments.
In 2025, Brazil collected billions in betting-related taxes following full regulatory implementation. However, the Government’s approach suggests that betting is being treated less as an industry to be nurtured and more as a revenue source to be optimized carefully.
Brazil’s Finance Minister has previously defended higher betting levies
