Polymarket moves into private company event contracts

Polymarket has expanded its prediction market offering with new contracts tied to private company milestones, including valuations, IPO timing and secondary-market activity.

The operator has listed markets connected to companies including OpenAI and Anthropic, giving users a way to trade on private-market events without owning shares, voting rights or equity exposure.

Nasdaq Private Market will serve as the exclusive resolution data provider for the contracts. Its data will determine whether markets pay out, with valuation information made publicly available without a subscription.

The launch comes amid rising investor interest in private companies that have built large valuations before entering public markets. 

Nasdaq Private Market said there are now more than 1,500 private companies valued at $1bn or more, while the number of listed US public companies has fallen significantly since the 1990s. 

Current Polymarket contracts include whether OpenAI will hold an IPO at a valuation above $1tn before 2027, whether Anthropic will reach a valuation of at least $500bn in 2026 and whether Anthropic will be valued higher than OpenAI at any point this year.

The move also broadens Polymarket’s position beyond political, sports and cultural event markets into areas closer to private-market data and investment sentiment.

Kalshi offers some event contracts tied to private company IPO timing, but its markets resolve using sources including company websites, SEC filings and news outlets. Polymarket’s new structure uses Nasdaq Private Market as a single resolution source. 

The expansion arrives during a period of regulatory attention for prediction market operators in the US. On May 19, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit seeking to block Minnesota’s new law banning prediction markets, arguing that federally regulated derivatives activity falls under its authority.

Earlier this month, Polymarket was named the exclusive prediction market partner of Serie A, adding to previous agreements with La Liga and MLS. The operator’s FC Lazio agreement had also drawn scrutiny from Italian Democratic Party MPs over gambling, advertising and consumer protection rules.