Macau's casino market showed signs of recovery last week as the impact of the FIFA World Cup 2026 began to fade. Estimated average daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) rose approximately 9% from the previous week.
Citi analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau estimated that average daily GGR reached around MOP 679m during the week following July 6, compared with approximately MOP 621m in the preceding period.
The improvement coincided with a reduced World Cup schedule as the tournament entered its final stages before concluding on Sunday. The analysts suggested that fewer football matches meant less competition for players' attention and gambling budgets, allowing casino activity to regain some momentum.
For the first 19 days of July, Macau's casino GGR was estimated at approximately MOP 12.05bn. Despite the recent improvement, Citi maintained its full-month July GGR forecast at MOP 21bn. If achieved, the result would represent a decline of around 5% from the same month last year. Casinos would need to generate approximately MOP 746m in average daily GGR over the remainder of the month to meet that projection.
Performance across individual gaming segments remained relatively stable. Based on industry feedback, VIP betting volumes were estimated to have been broadly unchanged or up by as much as 2% month-on-month, while mass-market GGR remained largely flat. VIP hold rates were also reported to have strengthened compared with the previous week.
With the World Cup now over, Citi expects the Macau gaming market to recover at a faster pace, particularly as attention shifts back toward casino and leisure spending.
A busy calendar of entertainment and tourism events is also expected to support visitation over the coming weeks, potentially providing casinos with additional momentum following the temporary World Cup-related slowdown.
Macau casinos would need to generate around MOP 746m in average daily GGR for the remainder of July to reach Citi's MOP 21bn forecast
