The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis has set out a standard 20% behavioural adjustment when estimating the fiscal impact of changes to gambling tax.
Under the rule, the projected revenue or cost arising from a tax-rate change is reduced by 20% to account for changes in market behaviour. The adjustment does not include a gradual phase-in, anticipatory behaviour or direct effects on the bases of other taxes.
CPB said the gambling tax is levied on gross gaming revenue across most of the market, making it a direct cost for operators. Lotteries are treated differently, with tax applied to prizes paid.
According to the report, operators may pass higher costs to customers through changes to the effective price of gambling. This may reduce demand as consumers gamble less, lower their stakes, move to unlicensed providers or play with operators based abroad.
Research cited by the CPB found a price elasticity of -0.55 for a significant part of the online market. A 2023 study estimated elasticity of -0.73 across all gambling, while older research placed typical levels between -1 and -2 for different products.
Tax changes may also affect supply. The CPB noted that stake restrictions and minimum payout requirements can prevent some operators from passing on the full cost, potentially reducing profitability and the availability of gambling products.
Limited data following the tax increase introduced on 1 January 2025 indicated a behavioural effect close to 20%, based on a comparison between the first half of 2025 and the final quarter of 2024. Calculations by the Dutch regulator, Kansspelautoriteit, and the Ministry of Finance produced a similar result.
However, CPB said the short comparison period and separate player-protection rules introduced in October 2024 prevented a more precise estimate.
The potential movement of players towards unlicensed operators remains a prominent issue in the Netherlands. In August, affiliate trade body KVA identified a website using branding similar to the national suicide prevention service while promoting illegal operators.
Gambling tax is levied on gross gaming revenue across most of the Dutch market, while lotteries are taxed on prizes paid
