Citi has lowered its September gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for Macau by 10% to MOP18bn after its latest casino survey showed weaker premium-mass activity.
The revised estimate, down from MOP20bn, would represent a 14% year-on-year decline and leave third-quarter GGR approximately 4% below the same period in 2025.
During Citi's survey, observed premium-mass wagers fell 45% year on year from HK$12.3m (US$1.57m) to HK$6.8m. The number of premium-mass players declined 20% to 401, while average wagers per player dropped 31% to HK$16,958.
Despite describing the survey as among its weakest in recent years, Citi cautioned against treating the results as evidence of a sustained decline in customer spending.
The survey was conducted one week before the Mid-Autumn Festival and two weeks before Golden Week, potentially encouraging some customers to postpone Macau trips until the holiday period. Citi observed a similar pattern in 2024, when a weak September survey was followed by stronger October gaming revenue.
Galaxy Entertainment led the latest premium-mass survey with 26% of observed wagers, up from 20% a year earlier. MGM China followed with 24%, compared with 9% in September 2025.
The upcoming holiday period and entertainment calendar could provide a clearer indication of demand, with concerts and the NBA China Games among events scheduled across Macau properties in October.
The weaker forecast comes despite continued tourism growth. Macau reached 30 million visitors earlier this month, with average daily arrivals rising 8% year on year to 119,000.
Casino GGR, however, fell 1.2% year on year to MOP21.9bn in August. For the first eight months of 2026, cumulative GGR remained 3.7% higher at MOP169bn.
Macau surpassed 30 million visitor arrivals on September 11, 22 days earlier than in 2025
