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Mexican Football Federation sues Kalshi as CFTC flags manipulation risks

The New York lawsuit adds to mounting legal disputes over Kalshi’s event contracts, while federal regulators have separately tightened their focus on “mention markets.”

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Key Points
Mexican Football Federation files a federal lawsuit against Kalshi in New York
Kalshi continues to face disputes over the regulatory status of sports event contracts
CFTC says mention markets carry heightened manipulation risk

The Mexican Football Federation (FMF) has filed a lawsuit against prediction market operator Kalshi in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York.

The complaint, filed under case number 1:26-cv-08259, names Kalshi and related defendants. The case was filed on September 23, although the substance of the complaint was not publicly available through the docket sources reviewed at the time of publication.

The action adds another legal proceeding involving Kalshi as courts, state regulators and federal authorities continue to address how event contracts intersect with gambling regulation.

Kalshi operates a CFTC-regulated designated contract market and has expanded its sports event contracts across the US. That expansion has generated disputes over whether the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over the products or whether state and tribal gaming laws can also apply.

In July, a federal judge denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction preventing New York from enforcing state gambling laws against its sports-related event contracts. New York subsequently sued Kalshi, alleging that it was operating an unlicensed gambling operation in the state.

The Ninth Circuit delivered another decision in September, blocking Kalshi from offering sports event contracts on the lands of two California tribes while litigation continues.

CFTC warns over mention market manipulation

The FMF lawsuit comes as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) separately increases its scrutiny of prediction markets.

The CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight has issued an advisory covering “mention markets,” event contracts determined by whether an individual says certain words, attends an event or interacts with another person.

The regulator said these contracts present a “heightened risk of manipulation” because settlement depends on discrete conduct that may not be independently generated or externally verifiable.

The advisory outlines limited circumstances in which the contracts may be listed under the Commodity Exchange Act and reminds designated contract markets that Core Principle 3 requires listed contracts not to be readily susceptible to manipulation.

The guidance follows CFTC enforcement activity involving the segment. In August, the regulator ordered Gabriel Perez to pay $172,000 after finding that he used non-public information obtained through federal government employment to trade presidential mention market contracts. 

Relevant past news: Kalshi has also requested CFTC approval to introduce margin trading for certain prediction markets, with its proposal excluding sports, culture and mention markets. 

Good to know

Kalshi filed a Sports In-Game Data Feed Program with the CFTC in September as its sports event contract operations continued to develop

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