The €1bn question: Does Veikkaus’ lottery monopoly signify an unfair advantage?

Good things, as they say, take time. All in all, the demonopolisation of Finland’s gambling market – from conception to practice – will have taken five years in total.  

Indeed, 2027 will be the year Veikkaus’ market monopoly supposedly comes to an end. However, the operator’s H1 2026 financial report came equipped with a handful of updates that shed new light on the complexion of Finland’s new-look market – leaving the phrase ‘demonopolisation’ open to interpretation. 

Home advantage: Veikkaus retains lottery monopoly  

As we know, the restructuring of Finland’s gambling market will allow current monopoly operator, Veikkaus, to remain operational within the region. More specifically, its subsidiaries will be able to apply for an operator licence alongside any other external parties looking to enter the market, with the group retaining its monopoly rights over lotteries, retail slots, scratchcards and other land-based products.  

Highlighted as part of the operator’s H1 report was the fact that Veikkaus has paid €1bn ($1.15bn) to retain Finnish lottery rights as part of a 10-year contract.  

This update all but confirms previously outlined suspicions around Finland’s restructuring: Veikkaus will invariably retain the upper hand in the market. As of June 2026, the operator has 2.7 million registered customers in Finland, with its H1 report outlining that 64.5% of its revenue was driven via digital channels.  

The company’s pre-existing infrastructure and brand recognition further emphasise its advantageous position, which could be further compounded should it incept a competitive online subsidiary that – in theory – could benefit further from the group’s shared resources.  

What do we know about the market?  

Alas, Veikkaus’ advantage is structural, but it will still have to compete with both new external online operators and the offshore market whilst ensuring the continuation of its lottery business, which accounted for 67% of revenue during H1 2026.  

Should Veikkaus venture into the demonopolised online sector, it’s hard to imagine it will be allowed to transfer current online accounts to its new subsidiary. Nevertheless, the regulations around this specific but crucial point of contention remain unclear. What we do know about the market is that there will be tight restrictions around advertising, which could have a knock-on effect on customer acquisition for any operators looking to enter the region from overseas.  

The targeted opening date of 1 July 2027 will also see the introduction of mandatory identification, player limits and self-exclusion. This, combined with Veikkaus’ potential advantage and a flat 22% GGR tax rate presents a fascinating conundrum for external operators looking to capitalise on the Finland opportunity.  

Indeed, against an already heavily restricted and economically challenging European backdrop, some may be evaluating whether the payoff will be worth the investment.  

Sweden as a case study 

A key driver behind the decision to restructure Finland’s market was channelisation. Ultimately, the Government is looking to bring offshore gambling into the regulated landscape. Yet, Sweden’s experience suggests that licensing alone does not guarantee effective channelisation. Sweden’s regulator, Spelinspektionen, estimates that 84% of gambling on the competitive market was channelled through licensed operators in 2025. More specifically, however, it continues to state that the online casino sector has significantly weaker channelisation than its counterparts.  

This highlights a key challenge for Finland; attracting players into the regulated online market is going to be difficult. But if players are going to look towards the regulated space, then Veikkaus will remain the obvious choice.  

Of course, all of this hinges on the idea that Veikkaus does decide to compete within the online sector – which is no guarantee. If not, then it’s anyone’s guess how the market will materialise from a competitive standpoint. Regardless, with around 10 months to go until opening day, both Veikkaus and Finland’s newly formed regulator have a lot of work still to do. 

With each new market comes new excitement, new opportunities and, of course, new challenges. Nevertheless, there’s no such thing as an easy ride in Europe’s unforgiving gambling landscape, and Finland’s market may represent one of the most challenging new launches the industry has seen in some time.