Analysis

Have the US Midterm Elections flipped the script on prediction markets?

Following the results of the Midterm Elections and a recent denial witnessed by Kalshi in Nevada, prediction markets could be headed for a final stand-off for their regulatory freedom.

· 7 min read
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Kirk Geller avatar Kirk Geller Staff Writer
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Midterms Predictions Analysis
Key Points
Kalshi’s petition for a panel rehearing related to its legal disputes in Nevada was denied by a Ninth Circuit Court
The US Midterm Elections saw multiple states flip their respective political parties, including Texas, Ohio and Kansas
Kalshi reported processing over $1.1bn in trading on the Midterm Elections, including $145m on the Texas Senate race

The US witnessed quite the political turnaround as part of the 2026 Midterm Elections, with numerous seats in both the House and Senate flipping in states such as Texas, Ohio and Kansas. While the overall landscape of the US is bound to change following the Election results, its impact on gaming is as crucial as any sector which drives the country’s economy.

Given the regulatory tug of war operators and state legislators have been playing over prediction markets, the Midterm Elections served as yet another victory for those in opposition to Federal control. Ties held by President Donald Trump and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to like-minded candidates have now been severed.

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Midterms Predictions Analysis
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Have the US Midterm Elections flipped the script on prediction markets?

Following the results of the Midterm Elections and a recent denial witnessed by Kalshi in Nevada, prediction markets could be headed for a final stand-off for their regulatory freedom.

7 min read • • By Kirk Geller
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