Polymarket odds shifted sharply following the release of an AtlasIntel survey, which placed political figure Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of Senator Iván Cepeda in a hypothetical presidential contest.
According to Polymarket data, de la Espriella now holds a 48% implied probability of winning Colombia’s 2026 presidential election, compared to 36% for Cepeda. Senator Paloma Valencia follows with 6.7%, while former governor Sergio Fajardo stands at 5%.
The movement in betting activity came after AtlasIntel’s poll showed de la Espriella leading first-round voting intention with 28%, narrowly ahead of Cepeda’s 26.5%. The nationwide survey was released months ahead of Colombia’s presidential election cycle.
Among the remaining candidates, the poll placed Fajardo at 9.4%, with Juan Carlos Pinzón and Paloma Valencia each at 5.1%. Former Bogotá mayor Claudia López registered 2.6%, followed by Enrique Peñalosa at 2.3%, Juan Daniel Oviedo at 1.8% and Aníbal Gaviria at 1.3%.
AtlasIntel’s data also suggests that de la Espriella, associated with the Defensores de la Patria movement, would defeat Cepeda by more than nine percentage points in a second-round runoff scenario.
Colombia’s presidential campaign officially begins on January 31, 2026, with the election scheduled for later in the year. As the field continues to take shape, prediction markets have emerged as a parallel indicator of political momentum alongside traditional polling.
This movement comes amid heightened scrutiny and expansion of prediction markets globally. In recent months, platforms such as Polymarket have been directly affected by Google’s update to its advertising policies for prediction market: it will explicitly permit ads in the US, reshaping how election-related products can be promoted.
At the same time, Polymarket’s role as exclusive prediction market partner of the Golden Globes and sponsor of the New York Rangers has underscored the sector’s push into mainstream cultural events, placing prediction markets at the intersection of political forecasting, commercial growth and regulatory oversight.
Colombia’s 2026 presidential election is scheduled for May 31, when voters will choose the president and vice president for the 2026–2030 term. If no candidate secures an outright majority, a runoff election would take place on June 21
