Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour has attempted to clarify his and the prediction market platform’s position on markets that could be determined by the death of an individual.
The announcement of the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei arrived on March 1, after the joint US-Israel assault on Iran, designated Operation ‘Epic Fury’ by the Americans.
After the operation began, the Kalshi market relating to the ongoing premiership of Ali Khamenei saw high engagement, with lots of money being put on the notion of the Supreme Leader not being in power by a certain date.
On February 28, Kalshi publicly stated that if Khamenei dies, the market will not pay out – later it was clarified that in the event of death, the market would resolve based on the last traded price prior to death.
Seemingly this was still not clear enough, and on his own X, Mansour has now pushed back against criticism that his platform received over its handling of the contentious prediction market.
He says: “We design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here.”
Later he too attempted to clarify, and made clear that everyone, whether they had a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ position, would be paid out the last traded price before time of death – he also said that anyone who bought a position post-death would be reimbursed.
Many online have expressed their continued dissatisfaction at this response and claimed that the rules are unclear.
This is not the first time that Mansour has tried to ensure his prediction market platform is positioned as against insider trading and opposed to the more laissez faire approach to controversial markets taken by sector competitor, Polymarket.
His justifications for hosting the market and others like it are cited as being due to the significant: “ geopolitical implications, economic consequences, national security considerations, oil and commodity prices, many of which move based on news and expectations around this outcome.”
This appears to refer back to the part of Kalshi that is positioned as an important cultural barometer and social tool.
Over at Polymarket, hundreds of millions have been staked on when strikes in Iran would happen, with payouts regarding Khamenei currently in a ‘debate period’ that indicates disputes over its resolution.
Ali Khamenei had been Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989
