The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) and British Horseracing Authority (BHA) have warned of separate impacts from a potential doubling of the standard Machine Games Duty (MGD) rate ahead of the UK Government's October Budget.
The standard MGD rate is currently 20%, while a higher 25% rate applies where the maximum cost to play can exceed £5 ($6.62).
The debate follows the increase in Remote Gaming Duty from 21% to 40% in April 2026, with remote General Betting Duty due to rise to 25% from April 2027. Bets on UK horseracing are excluded from the latter increase.
The BGC said four casino operators have more than £200m in planned UK investment, with more than £50m potentially cancelled or reduced if standard MGD reaches 40%.
Projects include £8m earmarked for Bristol and £5m each for Cardiff and Bournemouth, alongside Genting Casinos' proposed redevelopment of London's Trocadero.
The investment follows casino reforms effective from July 2025 that expanded machine allowances for converted casino premises.
Qualifying casinos can make up to 80 gaming machines available, subject to premises requirements and a maximum ratio of five machines per gaming table.
The warning also follows Genting Casinos' decision to close its Coventry property after concluding the venue was no longer commercially viable.
The casino employed 51 people, while the operator cited rising employment, business rates, energy, compliance and gaming tax costs.
BGC CEO, Grainne Hurst, said: "Further tax hikes would put this £200 million investment drive at risk, with more than £50 million of projects already identified as likely to be cancelled or scaled back if MGD is doubled."
BHA warns racing could lose £92m annually
Separately, the BHA has responded to Regulus Partners modelling examining the consequences for betting shops if standard MGD rises to 40%.
The modelling forecasts around 4,050 shop closures within three years, leaving approximately 1,500 operating, alongside 28,000 betting-sector job losses. It estimates MGD receipts would fall 32% to around £155m as the retail estate contracts.
For racing, Regulus estimates annual losses of £92m, comprising £24m in Horserace Betting Levy income and £68m from media rights. The BHA described that figure as approximately one-third of racing's betting-derived income.
The competing projections remain modelling rather than confirmed outcomes. The Social Market Foundation, which proposed doubling standard MGD on Category B machines, previously estimated the measure could generate an additional £275m to £458m for the Treasury.
On 2 October, new BHA Chair Simon Cox set funding among his immediate priorities after taking office, alongside governance and the development of a shared strategy for British racing.
The BHA says British racing supports 85,000 jobs, while Regulus estimates each betting shop closure removes roughly £6,000 in Levy payments and around three times that amount in media rights contributions
