The Brazilian ban could reduce recurring revenue at the country’s leading football clubs by up to 26%, according to analysis by economist Cesar Grafietti.
Flamengo, Corinthians and Palmeiras would face the largest reductions among the 10 Série A clubs with the highest betting sponsorship income included in the study.
The estimates draw on Grafietti’s report accounts for the loss of betting sponsorships and stadium advertising boards. The analysis excludes player transfer fees and prize money from the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup because it focuses on recurring revenue.
Flamengo would see its revenue fall by 26%, from BR$1.3bn ($236.4 m) to BR$967.2m, after losing an estimated BR$334.5m.
Corinthians would face a 23% reduction, from BR$879.4m to BR$681.4m, while Palmeiras’ revenue would decline 22%, from BR$733m to BR$570m.
Grafietti said clubs were not prepared for an abrupt loss of that scale, arguing that no industry could absorb such a sudden reduction in revenue without consequences.
The analysis also considers a shorter scenario in which the ban remains effective only through December 2026. Under that assumption, the three clubs would each lose approximately 6% of their annual revenue, based on the impact between October and December.
That outcome would require Congress to overturn the measure, a prospect complicated by Lula’s re-election victory.
The restriction stems from Provisional Measure 1,394/2026, issued on September 25. It prohibits the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting in Brazil, including sports betting and online games. The measure also bars related sponsorships and payments.
The measure remains under consideration in Congress, with a deliberation deadline of November 23. Its final status will determine whether the projected losses reflect a temporary disruption or a longer-term change to clubs’ commercial income.
Betting companies provided BR$1.03bn in sponsorships to Brazil’s 20 Série A clubs in 2025
