Brazil’s Senate-backed Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI) has included lost tax receipts from the country’s fixed-odds betting ban in a BR$40bn (US$7.44bn) estimate of additional, unbudgeted fiscal pressure.
The figure combines three measures: the loss of betting revenue, a proposed increase in Bolsa Família benefits and a package for individual microentrepreneurs, known as MEIs.
The IFI did not publish a separate estimate for the betting component, limiting what the total says about the cost of prohibition on its own.
The assessment appears in the IFI’s October Fiscal Monitoring Report. Its directors, Marcus Pestana and Alexandre Andrade, projected a primary deficit of 0.5% of GDP for 2026. They warned that new commitments, alongside differences between the institution’s estimates and the 2027 budget proposal, could leave an effective primary deficit of 1% of GDP next year.
The report estimates that Brazil needs a primary surplus of 2.1% of GDP to stabilize public debt relative to economic output. Moving from the potential 2027 deficit to that level would require a fiscal adjustment of about three percentage points of GDP.
Other campaign commitments, including a higher education Pé-de-Meia program and free public transport at weekends, are outside the BR$40bn estimate.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s Government introduced its provisional fixed-odds betting ban in September. The measure covers sports betting and online games, including offers directed at people in Brazil by companies based abroad. It excludes other lottery products authorized under Brazilian law.
The Finance Ministry required platforms to stop taking new deposits when the measure was published and made betting sites and apps unavailable from October 6.
The formerly regulated sector now faces a legislative decision on whether the provisional ban will remain in force. That decision will also shape the future revenue base considered by the IFI.
The report also argues that some public credit spending falls outside the headline primary-balance target while still affecting debt. In that wider setting, the IFI’s combined estimate offers a measure of pressure from several policy choices, with no breakdown that would allow a standalone price tag to be attached to the betting ban.
Following Lula’s runoff victory, the betting ban became part of the next administration’s broader fiscal debate.
The IFI’s October report raised its median estimate of Brazil’s neutral real interest rate from 5% to 6.1%
