Some years ago, as a relatively new reporter in this industry, I wrote a piece titled ‘Politics: Gambling can’t live with or without you.’
Today, the Brazilian gambling industry is in a state of mourning after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed a provisional ban on all online betting (both casino and sports betting).
It is perhaps the single biggest example of the point I made in that feature on gambling's symbiotic relationship with political authorities. Brazil’s gambling sector needs politics to remain legal; but the longer legalized gambling persisted in Brazil, the more the Lula Administration began to despise it.
An uncertain political situation guarantees chaos
Of course, before we analyze how we got here and what this ban may mean for the industry, it is important to acknowledge external political factors.
This bill is only provisional, and has been put forward as a vote-winning policy by President Lula just before the upcoming General Election on October 4.
The law would need to be approved by a Congressional vote within 120 days, while President Lula is only just ahead in the polls, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro still holding every chance of defeating him.
Then, there is a reality here we are all aware of: a betting ban won’t stop betting. It never does.
Instead of policing licensees and attempting to deter illegal operators, Brazil’s market will now simply remain 100% illegal. The Government will become embroiled in endless legal battles, while it will owe its licensees millions in refunds…
Yet the reality behind President Lula’s decision, no matter its innermost intentions, is that Brazil’s politicians now consider gambling tax revenue to be insufficient compared to the societal damage it is doing.
That is a damning argument for a Government to make, and an argument few other national governments have made so overtly.
Rightly or wrongly, that is just how gambling has come to be perceived by the Brazilian public, its media and its politicians. Trust has evaporated quickly.
There is a subtlety to gambling as a product. It is not something you can advertise on every street corner, feed through every influencer and mix so deeply with national culture
How did we get here? A dangerous narrative…
It is undeniable that betting is a victim of fickle policymaking more than most industries – and not just in South America.
In Brazil, however, something has happened at scale that I have yet to witness in any other markets. A mainstream marketing strategy quickly proliferated that portrayed betting as an easy means of getting rich quick. Not via lottery tickets – but via online slots and sports betting.
Influencers promised that games are bugged and glitches in them will guarantee players millions... as long as they just keep spinning. The Fortune Tiger slot embodied this phenomenon (I even fielded questions from a BBC journalist on the topic once) and, in 2025, ultimately ended up creating a national inquiry named the CPI das Bets.
Here, there were already warning signs. Virginia Fonseca, Brazil’s most famous betting influencer – who recently vowed not to work on gambling content again – took a selfie with a senator mid-hearing. The whole process was likened to a “circus” and that senator has since confessed he “was an idiot.”
The inquiry's conclusion was a report recommending an outright ban on online slots. It was rejected in 2025 – but just a year later, its recommendations are being pursued to a tee.
Of course, many of the extreme cases we see reported in the Brazilian media are down to the black market.
But negative stories about licensed operators, the fact that betting sponsorships went through the roof and the complete overkill in regulated advertising did not help the public distinguish between legal and illegal.
In anything, there has to be a balance. Brazilian gambling did not find this balance.
Public opinion and political motives target sports too
Last week, reports suggested an online casino ban in Brazil was becoming increasingly likely. They also suggested, though, that online sports betting would be spared.
In President Lula’s eventual bill, online sports betting was not spared – and football clubs were also hit as they can no longer receive betting sponsorships.
It is a complete reversal of the legalization of a market that only occurred in January 2025.
Political motives may well be at play, and the industry may well argue that President Lula was determined to move against it in any possible situation.
But we must ask ourselves why.
In a recent survey, as many as 75% of voters said they would welcome a betting ban in Brazil.
Brazil's gambling industry now needs genuine leaders to step forward. To admit failings, address how to move forward and start regaining player trust
Influencer after influencer has been arrested over the last two years and advertising has become far too aggressive.
Did betting operators, for example, really need to advertise at the Carnival?
As an advocate of gambling and the freedom of choice, I say this in the best interests of our industry: there is a subtlety to gambling as a product. Those who want to bet will do so, and the right amount of marketing will push them in the right direction.
Gambling, however, is not something you can advertise on every street corner, feed through every influencer and mix so deeply with national culture. Here, Brazil’s betting industry went too far. It ran before it could walk.
Why rebuilding trust is all that matters now
Today, President Lula publicly associates gambling with debt and the breaking up of families.
As a gambling journalist, I've followed the development of huge stories over the years and, before that, as a football journalist I followed an endless number of transfer sagas. You get a feel for when these kinds of things are actually going to happen.
Over the last few months, an online casino ban (ironically for this sector) looked odds-on. Yet some in the industry pretended otherwise.
As recently as this week there were suggestions on social media that an online casino ban was ‘fake news.’
In what I’ve described as the most honest and insightful take on Brazilian gaming so far, Felipe Bondezzan this week told Global Gaming Insider a ban was “extremely unlikely” but acknowledged the regulated industry needs to read the room.
The media, politicians and, it would appear, the public have all sided against gambling in Brazil.
At that point, nodding along in agreement at trade shows becomes irrelevant. While our industry may think Brazil's betting ban is 'disgraceful,' one of the many words used on social media in response to the news, the Brazilian people do not. That's what's most important here – rebuilding the industry's trust.
Influencers promised that games are bugged and glitches in them will guarantee players millions... as long as they just keep spinning
Why sustainable leadership is the Brazilian industry's only answer
Brazil’s gambling sector now needs genuine leaders to step forward; to admit failings, address how to move forward and start regaining player trust. If public perception improves, political willingness will follow.
Sustainable business isn't just a slogan. In today's global climate, you cannot aim to make a quick buck and disregard the consequences.
In a recent Huddle Report, I spoke about the regulated gaming industry needing to raise standards, without simply using the black-market threat as a “comfort blanket” in every possible situation.
Brazil’s betting ban really helps drive that point home.
Our industry can play the helpless victims, but that narrative is no longer being listened to by policymakers or bettors themselves.
The industry in Brazil got this one wrong. It didn't listen to political threats and it rushed through 10 years of regulated market evolution in less than two – despite operators saying they will learn from European mistakes.
So there is only only true way forward in Brazil, whether the betting ban is actually implemented or not (and whether by President Lula or Senator Bolsonaro). Ane that is to openly accept failings, start addressing them and regain the trust of the Brazilian public.
More broadly, there are lessons to be learned from this on a global scale. Yes, the Brazilian Government deserves criticism for how it has handled this whole saga. But the industry’s own actions have not helped.
Failing to heed this warning will just ensure history repeats itself elsewhere.
President Lula's main rival, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, is the son of former Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro – who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup
